poker sportsbetting

Winning at sportsbetting, losing at freerolls

I got a real nice bet down on the Carolina/Seattle game, where I was assured of a 2.5% profit no matter who won. It involved some risk because I locked in one side of the bet way before I bet the other side and I couldn’t be sure the line would move the way I thought it would. I had some good advice and I felt pretty certain that it would, but you never know for sure. I had a brief panic when one of the books got overwhelmed in between games Sunday and I couldn’t get my offsetting bet down. They wouldn’t even take the wager on the phone. I was really afraid I was going to get burned, but I got the bet placed minutes before the game started. I was going to have to hedge on live betting with Pinnacle and I would surely have booked a loss if it worked out that way.

I also played yet another protégé event. This one was for the top 1,000 point getters over the last few months. Although 1,000 qualified, only 288 showed up. I was fairly happy with my play, but wound up bounced out again in 46th.

I drifted down to 1,275 chips in the middle of Level 2 when I couldn’t catch any flops. I intentionally decided to see more flops than usual to try to get some of the free money that the crazy players always give up early in a freeroll. There was one guy who pushed pre-flop about 20 times and I finally decided to look him up with AQs, figuring I was a coin flip at worse. I was right — he had AT and I busted him and chipped up to 2,230. A couple of hands later I flopped a set and took down a nice pot with a turn check-raise. I ended the level 38th of 252 remaining.

In level 3 I lost a big pot. A fairly bad player min-raised pre-flop and I re-raised with JJ. I flopped and overpair and bet about 3/4 of the pot. He pushed and I thought I was toast, but it wasn’t many more chips, so I had to call. He had QQ and I fell all the way to 825 chips. Ouch!

In level 4, I start pushing because I’m down to 675 chips after an orbit or two. I steal the blinds with AJ and KQ. Then I’m in the SB with J9s. The BB is away and the Button raises first-in. I decide he could have all manner of crap, so I push. He calls (uh-oh) and then reveals AQ (double uh-oh). However, I had two live cards and he didn’t have any of my suit, so I felt pretty good. I think I was about a 40/60 dog. If you throw in a 20-30% chance he folds, I think the push was OK there. I get very lucky and river a 9 and double up to 2050 and 89 of 161. I steal once or twice in the next level and end up with the same 2,050 for 81/134 at the break.

I play some real solid poker after the break. I steal in spots, resteal with TT and take pots down on the flop with and without good hands. I never have many chips at risk and steadily move up the board. By the end of Level 7, I’m sitting at 4,780 and 37th of 77.

I start Level 8 with a SB/BB confrontation that goes badly, but follow that two hands later with a nice hand where I limp with KK on the CO against an all-in BB. The SB decides to push to isolate and I quickly call. SB shows AJ and I bust them both and climb to 5,890 and 31st of 58.

Right at the end of Level 8, I go broke. I’m happy with my play, I just got unlucky. An overactive EP player raises 3x BB and I find AKs. Given that the standard 3x raise is now 1,200 chips and any reasonable re-raise will commit me to the pot, I just push my 5,000 or so chips to the middle. Unfortunately, the big stack pushes behind me (he’s been playing fairly solid) and the BB calls all-in! The big stack shows KK and the BB shows AQ, so I’m down to 2 outs for my tourney life. No miracle card arrives and I miss out on another seat.

I’m quite happy with my play, despite failing to qualify for a seat. I believe that I’m achieving my primary goal of getting more tourney experience. I’m seriously considering going up to the Borgata this weekend for some SnG action and maybe winning my way into the WPT event.

By Nsidestrate

I'm a hard-core limit ring game poker player who is becoming a degenerate sports bettor. I'm sure it will all make more sense if you read on.