Comments on: April wrap-up http://www.nsidestrate.com/blog/2008/05/01/april-wrap-up/ Dedicated the successful management of our world's fisheries/cardrooms. Thu, 11 Mar 2010 03:47:43 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7.1 hourly 1 By: Nsidestrate http://www.nsidestrate.com/blog/2008/05/01/april-wrap-up/comment-page-1/#comment-111522 Nsidestrate Fri, 09 May 2008 15:11:25 +0000 http://www.nsidestrate.com/blog/?p=234#comment-111522 I'm actually not one who usually believes in 100k downswings either. I think the only way for it to happen would be if you were a very slight winner with a relatively high SD. Then it is fairly easy. For instance if you win 1 bb/100 and have a SD of only 14 bb/100, a downswing over 65,000 hands would be within 2 standard deviations. As your expected earn rate increases, the likelihood of this kind of downswing reduces significantly. I also suspect that the guy whose average win rate is 1 bb/100 actually plays much worse than that sometimes. Having said that, I know some players who I know to be very good long term winners who have had some soul-crushing downswings. I’m actually not one who usually believes in 100k downswings either. I think the only way for it to happen would be if you were a very slight winner with a relatively high SD. Then it is fairly easy. For instance if you win 1 bb/100 and have a SD of only 14 bb/100, a downswing over 65,000 hands would be within 2 standard deviations. As your expected earn rate increases, the likelihood of this kind of downswing reduces significantly. I also suspect that the guy whose average win rate is 1 bb/100 actually plays much worse than that sometimes.

Having said that, I know some players who I know to be very good long term winners who have had some soul-crushing downswings.

]]> By: Pud's Poker http://www.nsidestrate.com/blog/2008/05/01/april-wrap-up/comment-page-1/#comment-111492 Pud's Poker Fri, 09 May 2008 08:24:29 +0000 http://www.nsidestrate.com/blog/?p=234#comment-111492 I'm not sure if a someone could go on a 100k hand downswing which was totally down to variance but I have heard of 50-100k break even spells which must be very hard to take. As for short-term variance, I played in a short handed ting game the other day and 1st hand I was dealt AA and ended up AIPF against KK and it held for once! Two hands later everyone left the table so in 3 hands I'd made 100BB! I’m not sure if a someone could go on a 100k hand downswing which was totally down to variance but I have heard of 50-100k break even spells which must be very hard to take.

As for short-term variance, I played in a short handed ting game the other day and 1st hand I was dealt AA and ended up AIPF against KK and it held for once! Two hands later everyone left the table so in 3 hands I’d made 100BB!

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