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    • CommentAuthornsidestrate
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006 edited
     
    Have fun. Please do not reveal the identities of the remaining mafia players. I believe that is too high risk.

    You are certainly welcome to speculate on the subject, if you like.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006
     
    Nside, I didn't see this at first because I thought it would be under the "mob" category. Should it be moved there?
  1.  
    I just used this category because it was unused at present and I'm lazy. I can't put in in the mob category because then the current mafia could see it and I don't want to happen.

    At present, you, SuitedPair, Elmo, Angel-fish and cyb are the only ones who have access to this topic.
  2.  
    Do you like that better?
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006
     
    It's delovely.
  3.  
    It says "now you are dead" when you post. Perhaps I'll try to make that stop.
  4.  
    I'd offer three points for discussion about this game:

    1) What do you estimate is the percentage chance of a mafia victory at this point?
    2) Do you think chris should have nominated Icall or Wynton when he controlled the vote?
    3) Should Wynton have claimed to be the detective when he did?

    I estimate the chances of the mafia winning at about 30%. I believe that pilchard knows the identity of three of the remaining four members and that he has two strong candidates for the last one. I think that some of the other players are more confused about that.

    The real meta-game inside the game now is when (if ever) will pilchard decide to protect someone other than pilchard and will he manage to block a mob hit. If he does, the town wins for certain. If he tries to block a hit and dies, the mafia's chances of winning go up, I think.

    I'll leave my comments on the other two issues until later.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006
     
    I would estimate the chance of the mafia winning probably a bit lower. The town really has enough information to win, so long as they don't make a crucial error.

    I actually cannot remember the reasoning of why I announced detective status. The whole damn thing is just a haze right now. Only thing I recall definitely is that it was a group decision. My vaguer recollection is that we felt compelled to do something at that stage.

    I also cannot recall what was happening when chris controlled the voting. Seems like that occurred a million years ago.

    In retrospect, I think that we mob members did ok for novices at the game. (It was my first game.) But I would be so much wiser now. The mob needs to have a long-range plan from the beginning, and to act consistently with it. We were merely improvising, which can only get you so far.

    Key part of the entire game, in my view, is when the mob tried to nail Pilchard, assuming he would be protecting the detective. That was a risky move by Pilchard, but it worked.
  5.  
    Had you taken out the detective, you would almost certainly have won the game easily.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006
     
    Nside,

    Can I comment here about discussions going on in the mob thread - which I still have access to - provided I keep it general and am careful not to reveal anyone's identity?

    At this point, all I want to say that I find their level of second-guessing humorous. But I can see debating more of their strategy in the open later, unless you think that's taking this too far.
    •  
      CommentAuthorangel-fish
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006
     
    Hello! Very entertaining game. Y'all really had me second-guessing everyone and everything.

    I was fairly certain from the beginning that Pilchard was in the Mafia, partly because that's what you wanted me to believe, partly because he trusted Chris, and partly because he didn't trust me.

    Wynton, I had no real reason to suspect anything of until the Detective incident. That just left me shaking my head in disbelief. :) I still don't get that. You certainly did add some fun to the game, though.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006
     
    Angel,

    The farther we get from this thing the less I can remember my reasoning.

    As I mentioned before, I have little idea right now why the decision was made for me to announce detective. When I get a chance, I'll review the mob thread and see if I can recall what the hell we were thinking.

    Whatever the reasoning was, I'm certain that a major reason I wanted to do it was purely for the fun factor.
    •  
      CommentAuthorangel-fish
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006
     
    So I probably wasn't too off-base with my comment:

    "Personally, I think Wynton has a warped sense of humor and is just messing with us to make the game more entertaining."
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006
     
    You were dead on with that one.

    One thing I enjoyed about this game is that I was called, at various times: warped, pathetic, smart and a whole bunch of other contradictory labels.
  6.  
    they aren't all contradictory.
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006
     
    So much confusion... not having been in the mafia yet, I can only imagine the fun you have in the private threads :-)
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006
     
    1) What do you estimate is the percentage chance of a mafia victory at this point?

    Hmm. I think they're a slight dog, but as you say, there are a couple of pivots that could change that.

    2) Do you think chris should have nominated Icall or Wynton when he controlled the vote?

    I'm struggling to cast my mind back (it's been a few days, i've played and died in another game, and I've had a few drinks tonight...) but it struck me as odd at the time, flicking through the thread, to see Icall suddenly, or so it seemed, in the firing line. I did wonder if everything was above board, whether there weren't better candidates out there, but I might have missed something that preceded.

    3) Should Wynton have claimed to be the detective when he did?

    It certainly seemed to cause some confusion. I spent a lot of time working out what was going on (might be one of those things where the picture is clearer if you're more involved, whereas I'd been keeping only one eye open on this game until then), and kept coming back to one thought: one of San or Wynton had to be the detective, or there was a weird detective sitting quietly somewhere not saying anything, which didn';t seem likely. Perhaps there have been games where two fake detectives come out, I don't know...

    After earlier discussions, let's assume, I thought, that San is the detective. All his claims seemed consistent - he investigated one mafia, a couple of innocents, and shortly before his demise he found out who the doctor was. Somewhere around this time I figiured pilch was the doc. As someone said, if he's not mafia, why haven't they got rid of him? Either they feared that the doc was protecting him, in which case they had to find the doc, or he was the doc.

    Thinking it through, I think it was all still clearish in my mind, but I have to say, the town (with some mafia help of course) were somehow persuaded to off the detective. I say that was a good move, even if it was a clearly suicidal move even if it worked.
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006
     
    "that was a good move" - i am referring here to wynton claiming to be the det. Reading my last post I realise that's not clear. And also that I need some sleep.
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeApr 27th 2006
     
    Before I go, can I just point out how frustrating it is that I have lasted 2 days and 1 day so far... :-( and is there going to be a game 3 discussion thread - i might be the only one to use it, but I feel the need to offload thoughts...
  7.  
    It is somewhat axiomatic that when there are two claimed detectives, only one of them is mafia. For two mafia players to claim detective would be too big of a sacrifice, since a mafia plauer usually has to give up one of their own to be believed as the detective. The false detective is almost always unmasked within a round or two -- the usual point of the gambit is to permit the death of the real detective.

    I can start a discussion thread about the third game (you could too, I suppose).
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 28th 2006
     
    We probably did make the false detective gambit move out of an excessive concern for people trusting the real detective.

    In retrospect, I think that maybe we made too big a deal out of tarteting San, and we were also probably in more of a rush than we needed to be.

    It all comes down to not having enough of a long-term plan from the outset.
  8.  
    I believe that if you had been able to cement Chris as a completely trusted member of the inner circle (and killed pilchard and/or San in a reasonable amount of time), you would have been able to win in the end game.

    IThe last few kills are very interesting for the mafia. Pilchard is getting everyone to post suspect lists so that he can draw conclusions about who is killed in the next few nights. The mafia needs to choose between killing someone who looks likely to vote for someone else and leave dangerous voters alive or to kill people who will vote for them and risk tipping pilchard off. His strategy is sound, but it creates an opportunity for either side to outthink themselves.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 28th 2006
     
    Nside,

    It occurs to me that a lot of the strategizing has revolved around somewhat artificial factors. Principally, people put a lot of thought about how frequently they should post, whether they should lurk or appear to lurk, and how often others do the same. If everyone had the same schedule and same amount of free time, this type of speculation would be fine. But of course, that is not the case.

    It would be nice if there were some way of playing the game so that schedules were simply no factor at all.
    • CommentAuthornsidestrate
    • CommentTimeApr 28th 2006 edited
     
    Live play eliminates that problem.

    At 2+2, they are playing "turbo" games where everyone has to agree to be available for a three or four hour window and they do each round in 20 or 30 minutes. It is interesting, but so different as to almost be another kind of game.
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 28th 2006
     
    Hello chaps, well seems I'm on the other side now. I'm off out now, but I'll join your discussion probably tomorrow.

    Great game nside, thanks for bringing it to ITH.
  9.  
    The primary challenge of the game is one of limited information. You might think that the mafia now knows everything that they could know. They know the identity of all the players and that pilchard is the doctor. The townspeople are still struggling to overcome their information defecit.

    But there is one last thing that the mafia does not know. Pilchard knows who they have targeted and killed each night. They do not know who he protects. If pilchard manages to protect their intended target, the town will win the game for certain. If the mafia kill pilchard, the town will clearly be weaker.

    Will pilchard ever risk protecting anyone else? When should he do so and who should he protect? Can the mafia ever risk trying to hit pilchard?
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 28th 2006
     
    If I were in Pilchard's position, I'd take the safe route and protect myself as long as possible (which might be forever). If nothing else, he gets an advantage with time, as more and more info is likely to become apparent.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 28th 2006
     
    Anyone want to make any predictions who will be the next lynching victim (after they slay the obvious one, Chris)?
  10.  
    It will be Ben, I think. I believe that pilchard is almost certain he is mafia. Probably fanofbillckihair is the second choice.
  11.  
    As long as pilchard feels that they are very unlikely to hit him again, he faces very little risk, don't you think?
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 28th 2006
     
    Pilchard summed up my feelings exactly on this before. Yes, he knew there was very little chance he would be hit. But even knowing that, he realized it was too big of a risk to protect someone else, particularly when he couldn't be as sure who that person might be.

    If the town were in worse shape, it might make sense for him to protect someone else. But in as good shape as the town is, it's better for him to be conservative.
  12.  
    I disagree. He should have protected Ogre two nights ago. I think that was a very obvious target. The mafia have a harder time risking a hit on pilchard because they are behind, I think.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 28th 2006
     
    The truth is that Ogre really wasn't an overwhelming favorite to be hit. There were a number of other innocents who easily could have been chosen just as easily.
  13.  
    Ogre was the only innocent "certified" by the doctor left alive. In Pilchard's mind I think Sami, Fumseck and Nutjob are also 100% certain innocents.
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    I don't think Pilchard would ever have protected anyone but himself. He can't trust the rest of the townspeople to get it right. Apart from the night after San revealed himself as detective, Pilchard will have been protecting himself himself every night. Am I right nside?

    Our 2 biggest mistakes as mafia:

    1. Not having a long term strategy
    2. Not going after Pilchard when San revealed himself (or earlier because then we'd have known he was doctor)
    3. Trying to kill Pilchard and failing instead of going after San that night

    OK so that's 3.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    Lack of long-term strategy was critical. But it's hard to fault ourselves for either the decision to go after Pilchard one day, and then the decision to pursue him the next day. In neither case, do I think it was clear who Pilchard would protect.

    Nside, just because Ogre was the only certified innocent by San was not enough reason for Pilchard to assume that the mob was going to kill him. Indeed, the very fact that it seemed obvious could have just as easily been reason not to go after him.
  14.  
    I'm convinced that pilchard will not always protect himself for the rest of the game, if for no other reason than that he didn't protect San when San was known.

    If you look back on your mafia thread, you guys suspected pilchard to be the doctor very early. However, you changed your minds.

    I also think that the read of who pilchard trusts in the mafia forum is mistaken. I think he is completely certain of sami and nutjob's innocence.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    I agree with you that it is clear that Pilchard is certain of sami and nutjob's innocence.

    And I also think that Pilchard may well decide not to protect himself in the later stages, perhaps even now. But I think that Pilchard would have been wrong to protect someone other than himself earlier (when the mafia offed Ogre).
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    By the way, I think I actually argued early on to kill Pilchard. Can't remember why that idea was rejected.
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    You're right nside, I suspected Pilchard as doc very early. I think it was Chris who talked me out of it. He overanalyses stuff sometimes
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    We couldn't have killed him early on though Wynton, but we'd have known he was doc then.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    Why couldn't we have killed him early on?
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    Because he was the doctor, so will have been protecting himself
  15.  
    I do believe all hope is lost. This was the second night pilchard protected nutjob. Tonight it worked. I can't imagine that the mafia have a chance now.
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    Wow, never expected that.
  16.  
    With the exception of not expecting that the town would rebel at his leadership, he has played a stellar game.
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    Can't argue with that, Nside. He certainly has.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    Hello all, i'm tired but here. wow what a move by pilchard!
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    wow pilch protected nutjob last night too? that little devil!
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    ok i'm going to go back and read this thread....then i'll be back