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    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    Hey Sonny, good to see you!
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    I think this thread's gonna get a lot bigger now.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    we have no chance now...
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    somebody tell me. do you guys have any access to our thread?
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    Yes, Chris. You should too.
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    Only those of us who had access before do.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    sorry nside i let a name out when i thought it was ok, i immediately deleted it

    no names of the two remaining mafia guys right?
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    ok i'm going to look at the other thread be back in 5 minutes.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    ok i'm out...need some sleep. It is so much easier being an innocent and i've never been an innocent

    i wrote a very contorted thing about why to lynch icall let me go get it. i do know that when wynton came out i had thought that we were stopping it. but it did make the game more fun.

    a great advantage of naming icall was that if either sami or san stopped it I would go to wynton and that would have given me HUGE cred with pilch
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    The problem was, Chris, we never really had a long term strategy and spent a lot of time discussing what we'd do at the last minute. The Icall thing is a prime example.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    yes paul, we had no idea how to play the game at the beginning...but not bad for first timers...we learned a lot

    here was my thought at the ICALL thing. now at the time i knew pilchard already knew wynton...so i was giving him another one maybe that's why i said i have 2. I said i had two. now if icall is vetoed by sami or san i switch to wynton and have huge cred. I even would have switched to wynton had sami not told me to stay the course on icall after san got nervous and wanted to go with wynton.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    why did chris not make the obvious lynching of wynton?

    because he had TWO mob in the COD--just like nut said. remember, if you look at his post, he said that he had two candidates. so he goes along with icall which is possible, san even said he was going to investigate him. now if san has already investigated icall san will know that icall is innocent. but first sami must approve icall
    AND HE DOES. that adds more cred to Icall being mob. but lets say san gives the thumbs down on icall. now chris goes back to the obvious wynton. giving him HUGE credibility.

    now if san says ok, then icall is lynched, found innocent, and chris and san look bad, but not that bad. and you know who it helps

    SAMI

    see if chris has TWO in the COD then he can slightly sacrifice himself but sami actually moves up in cred big time even tho he approved icall.

    so the ICALL pick is not crazy at all. in fact it has the wynton bombshell waiting and ICALL still will probably get lynched in chaos like pilchard said, even hurting san's cred a bit and the whole san, pilchard, wynton mess gets fueled by chris THE NEXT day. the start of his rant against pilchard.

    this is really something. nut don't you see this.

    now chaos reigns. san and pilchard are still not totally believed by the town, suspicions are about fueled by ogre.

    but SAMI ah little SAMI now has HUGE credibility with pilchard just huge. see chris can afford to lose some credibility , not all, and in fact pilchard admits it in his coming out DOCTOR story....not good pilchard if you think about it. you should never have done this--they may have been all along hoping you would respond and reveal your thinking and in fact they got lucky when you did

    #######,,,,comment... this is where i screwed up.....pilchard would never be this careless unless it was a ploy...didn't think it through########

    chris the metldown--or chris the actor?

    i know this sounds crazy but nut what do you think?

    now sami stays totally with pilchard though everything, the san wynton mess and everything. TOTAL COT, 1st for sure.

    This is real, real, deep but maybe....nutjob check this out. have i found something.

    sami has moved up to #2 on my list behind torch

    The flaw in the above argument is that ONCE AGAIN we were outwitted by pilchard.
    Pilchardâ??s joking to me was a carefully scripted plot and one of the mob will clearly
    Figure this out.
    Part of it is natural because all he has to do is strategy and we have to do strategy and cover. That is a killer.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    anyway we have no shot now and poor _____ and ____ will put in much more time...but it's hopeless

    but still a wonderful game.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    one of ours will be lynched tomorrow FOR SURE
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    See the origginal plan with the Icall lynching was for Wynton to claim detective sooner and say you were mob, Chris. You were meant to get lynched and that gives Wynton credibility.

    It didn't work out that way. Glad it didn't now, wouldn't have had the pleasure of your company for as long then :-)
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    ;and i know which one too
  1.  
    Chris said:<blockquote>no names of the two remaining mafia guys right?</blockquote>I initially said that, in anticipation of a large number of innocents joining the chat. There is only angel-fish, cybrarian and krazytxan -- so I don't think there is much chance of anyone finding out, but still...
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    i just messed up one thing with fumseck, darn it, unless i was really clever and i was not

    i said

    sami
    fumseck
    nutjob

    when i should have said
    sami
    fumseck
    and a mobster

    darn it me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    nutjob you paid me a huge compliment and i appreciate it. same back at you.

    here's one thing we messed up on big time that i just realized. at dawn, we NEVER HAD ANYONE AROUND TO COMMENT ON THE KILL!!!!!

    because we already knew, unlike the innocents.

    darn it

    live and learn :)
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    Neither of our guys are around, Chris. That's why.
  2.  
    I think that Wynton was gone in the very near term no matter what. He was already high on most people's suspect list. I thought Icall looked more innocent than most and the case for Icall was thin (and worse yet, it was promoted by Tall Paul!). The vote for Icall saved Wynton for one round, but at the cost of ejecting Chris from pilchard's inner circle and making Tall Paul suspect number 1. I think it would have better if Chris lynched Wynton (who was toast anyhow) and protected his position in the inner power circle as well as avoiding making TP such a suspect.

    If you had to lynch someone else, it would have been better to pick a suspect that wasn't promoted by one of your own, I think. The problem was that you might have picked a suspect who was already cleared by San.

    San is the unsung hero of game 2 -- his investigations were right on. He had Elmo and Tall Paul. The TallPaul investigation was especially good -- a lesser player would have wasted a night on Wynton. Clearing Angel and Ogre was also helpful, because they both looked shady.

    I wish you would have followed your early plan to bring out a fake detective before San came out. It is always fun when a game goes that way -- in essence you did a 2:1 deal to get San anyhow, you just did it AFTER he came out.

    So much comes down to luck -- if you hit pilchard earlier, the whole thing could have been different. Elmo was also a mixed blessing as a mobster, he is smart and effective, but high profile. This means he is likely to be investigated early.

    There are two general ways to play the mafia team -- one is to be quite active and attempt to control the direction of the game (often with one or two sleepers), the other is to be as low profile as you can be and hope to avoid detection until it is too late. You guys played a good game of the active type and the game 3 team is playing a good game of the secretive type. I think they will win with their strategy. I think you did a better job of protecting your sleeper cell from the outset, you would have been a better position, but it was still quite close for a while.

    Let's guess how many innocents will be lynched after Chris and assign percentages:
    0 -- 35%
    1 -- 50%
    2 -- 15%
    3 -- 0%

    What are your guesses?
    • CommentAuthorTall Paul
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    Don't have too many arguments with your percentages there, Nside. Maybe put 0 a bit lower and 1 a bit higher, especially with Pilchard's democratic system he's just proposed (although I'm sure he'll overrule it if he thinks they're wrong).
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006 edited
     
    the point is, it's so obvious now, that pilchard can lie and do whatever he wants. The town thinks that he's being truthful with them, when they should not trust him at all. But still just follow orders and be truthful to him and he will lead them to victory.

    sami is so innocent it's incredible. that's why ben is toast. look at sami' s comment the day after he went into defensive mode. it is so sincere the poor guy and i felt so sorry for him. i just didn't think it through...sleep deprivation. I would have then told Ben: you know pilchard knows sami is as innocent as nutjob.

    I put our chances at about 1/1000 of winning. i put the chance of 0 hits at 30% 1 hit 50% and 2 hits 20%

    pilchard knows ben is 1, and fan or bgk is the other. so there is in fact 0 chance of winning. so now pilchard stays home the rest of the game....finally

    live and learn
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    i now change the percentages to 99% 0

    fan's last comment back to ben IMO makes him completely innocent.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    that comment smacks of someone who really doesn't know that pilchard moved out last night, hence pilchard puts fan in the innoc category, game over.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    very interesting to see how a great doc can manipulate the mob.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    pilchard doesn't care anything about what they list or all that...couldn't care less...all he wants them to do is talk and he will figure it out easily. i can see that. that is why we were compete toast. it doesn't matter what we say. 1 by 1 the others will guarantee their innocence by comments like fan just made.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    nside did pilchard really move over to cover san after his outing or not?
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006 edited
     
    wow what an eye opener

    this is so easy now!!! (gulp)
    our game wasn't a very good game at all....it had great theatrics but really was a lousy game.

    the only good natural thing in the game I did was argue with pilchard the next morning about how i realized that icall was a bad call and of course he was right. and then he said pipe down and i didn't

    that gave me HUGE CRED! That was what an innocent would do...try to defend and apologize esp to a brain like pilchard.

    then I threw it all away by jumping off of wynton. what a shame.

    ben and bgk and fan aren't guilty because they are over there. they are either

    1) kinda out of it or
    2) mob

    if i just stay over on wynton or act like an innocent during that fiasco....that would give me cred.

    you have to act natural....this part is absolutely nec.

    that's why, to me, ogre appeared so obviously innocent. why were they investigating him? i mean he was totally misguided and totally innoc.

    boy............would like to play again being the doctor lol
    or the detective

    any innocent....I could look very mob like then by acting the way i did in the last game

    bgk and torch...that is all pilchard is undecided on....

    Chris
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    we had the think like an innocent down, we forgot you have to ACT like one also. the only one doing that is bgk

    like the "i forgot to put it in bold" gives him HUGE cred.

    wow, what an eye opener.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    i think i could make a darn good mobster now....

    :)

    probably still have a lot to learn
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    actually they checked out angel too and she acted completely innocent IMO also.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    nside said:

    Pilchard is getting everyone to post suspect lists so that he can draw conclusions about who is killed in the next few nights. The mafia needs to choose between killing someone who looks likely to vote for someone else and leave dangerous voters alive or to kill people who will vote for them and risk tipping pilchard off. His strategy is sound, but it creates an opportunity for either side to outthink themselves.

    chrisjp says: I think this is where all this logic takes a back seat to personalities. just tell them to post their lists and look at their behavior.

    it was obvious to me that fumseck and nutjob and sami were innocent, not because of what the did or found out or suspected but HOW they acted.

    i think pilchard is behind here. He made a very dangerous move to nutjob for NO reason.

    it is obvious to me now that sami, nutjob and fan are COMPLETELY 100% innocent. fan from the first gibberish he wrote.

    ben is almost 100% mob

    bar is almost very likely innocent from his post today...very believable. NOT the content of what he said, the manner in which he said it. doesn't matter what his list said

    torch actually looks mobish by his demeanor

    bgk looks great, totally natural

    but pilchard has too many clues now.

    I really do think pilchard dropped the ball. it's all there and he risked blowing it by moving to nutjob.

    just my opinion....

    this is a behavior game, not a "math" game.

    Chris
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    just look at sami during the elmo/san info.....totally naturally innocent. i was much more reserved, mute, and suspect....

    sami is so innocent it is pathetic...and pilchard reading this knows it.

    it's behavior guys...behavior
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 29th 2006
     
    we were a terrible mob

    but we tried and we were just rookies

    geez i learned a lot
  3.  
    Chris said:<blockquote>pilchard doesn't care anything about what they list or all that...couldn't care less...all he wants them to do is talk and he will figure it out easily. i can see that.</blockquote>I think this is exactly right.
  4.  
    I'm not certain that pilchard has a 100% innocent read on fan. Some of fan's posts are very innocent sounding and some are quite confusing. I think fan might still be a suspect. If pilchard doesn't go 2 for 2, I think fan will be the inoocent that gets the axe.

    I think Ben is toast today.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2006 edited
     
    Good Morning nside,

    I feel wonderful today. I have cracked the case!!!!!!!!!!!!

    If you could let me go back into the den I bet I could get our chances up to 25% at least, maybe more. Too bad you won't. I could win this thing i tell you.

    pilchard is not doing nearly as good a job as I thought.

    OK here goes.

    Bgk posts the following:

    nutjob was very important to our side. we need him to stay alive. he is now 100% trusted by pilchard. <well of course pilchard found out that he is not mob last night> donâ??t say that part lol

    ok here goes.

    ben and I were struggling to get to the crux of the game. We figured out the first part. you need to think like an innocent. but we didn't get to the second part. you need to ACT like an innocent also. ben is thinking like and innocent but not acting like an innocent.

    Here is what bgk should say to pilchard.

    Hi pilchard. sorry i've been so late here but we had this wild party and got drunk. you know how it goes.

    ok my new list

    1) ben obviously mob per nutjob, nutjob you got this right

    so who is the other?

    let's eliminate one right now. sami see nutjob you got this one wrong again. you have helped us tremendously nutjob but you are totally wrong about sami just like you were totally wrong about fumseck

    go back and read sami during the elmo/san drama. read sami closely nutjob. wouldn't you agree that his actions are totally innoc? elmo says he's the doc. sami who strongly suspects elmo to be mob immediately changes to no vote because of course he needs to reconsider. lynching the doc would be a disaster. then san enters, pandemonium. so sami thinks some more and realizes YES san is the detective so lynch elmo. but he hasn't had time to think through what the detective should be doing in this game...so in order to be more comfortable with san he wants the names. san won't give him the names. sami rethinks and finally realizes that disclosure of the names is a bad idea. Nutjob think about this. Wouldnâ??t you agree?

    Now letâ??s look at last night. Nut, everyone knows you are innoc. When every one knew ogre was innoc the mob still took ogre. Pilchard could have made the daring play of covering ogre but decided not to. Mob kills ogre. Now we have the same situation again. But this time the mob got smart. They were hoping pilchard would move to nut to cover him, that would be a great play by pilchard. They are in trouble. So they made the brilliant, absolutely brilliant move on PILCHARD !!!! However, pilchard didnâ??t realize the move to nut was right, or figured it was still too risky, and stayed home. And twilight comes and no one has died.

    BRILLIANT move by the MOB

    Ok so sami is innoc

    Now we move on

    Who is the other Mafioso?

    Hereâ??s the list of suspects

    Bar
    Torch
    Fan


    Letâ??s look at torch. 100% innoc. Nut saw reason he hasnâ??t posted. He has been playing poker. Sami saw the wynton slip wynton gave angel and torch to get cred from them obviously innocent

    So we are down to bar and fan

    And I donâ??t know

    Bar; hasnâ??t posted much but his posts sound very believable
    Fan too wacky to be mob, but maybe?

    Ok sami and nut. See if I have missed something.

    Bgk


    Nside please tell me that this would be a great post. Also it is great that bgk has not posted yet. Ben thought he should have posted already. Of course he shouldnâ??t have.

    My thinking much clearer up here in heaven �

    Nside tell me what you think please?

    Thanks!

    Chris
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2006
     
    so here's what the mob should do today. actually bgk shouldn't even post today at all...save this post for tomorrow

    sun lynch ben kill sami
    mon lynch ?? kill pilchard

    that would be my order...i of course would have to reconsider the pilchard move based on what happens
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2006
     
    i think the ben and fan talk together may implicate fan. hope so
  5.  
    I think that BGK should avoid any deep analysis of the doctor protection issue. A throwaway line like "I can't believe they tried to kill pilchard again" could work, but most innocents don't spend much time thinking about the doctor role. A trap that the mafia sometimes set for the doctor is to start to talk about doctor strategy and whomever jumps in and makes the discussion is the doc.

    I do think that BGK should implicate fan, who is the most likely "false mafia" to be hit. I think pilchard sees Bar, Sami and Nutjob as obvious innocents, so it is just torch, fan, ben and BGK on the chopping block. I don't think torch looks very guilty either.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2006
     
    bgk should just post late today. say he got drunk etc.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2006
     
    no deep analysis like you said nside. bgk is not too "bright" the post should be

    i give my vote to pilchard. sorry we were partying yesterday

    wow, they went after pilchard.

    i can't see any reason to really change anything.

    my list still stands

    sami...etc
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2006
     
    wow read ben's comments...he is so off the mark. luckily it doesn't matter. a nutjob hit again is ok. as long as pilchard doesn't protect.

    ben see's what sami sees. a pilchard move to protect makes no sense so pilchard is off in his thinking.

    i hope they vote to kill sami, but nutjob is ok to me

    i hope bgk really did get drunk and that's why he isn't around lol
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2006
     
    ben should go today and bgk will have no idea what to do...but that's ok because he will NEVER kill fan.

    pilchard may think he is left with some super sharp dude.

    I VOTE TO KILL NUTJOB
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2006
     
    nside please do NOT tell me about any moves that Dr Pilchard has made. of course i know he protected nutjob last lol

    i want to figure out this by myself...

    i haven't seen you reveal any of this, but please delete it if you have tx.
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2006
     
    here's my thoughts on that nside

    pilchard has protected himself on every night but two

    that night after san came out
    last night

    here is the deal

    pilchard made a HUGE mistake last night venturing out
    he knows it
    sami knows it if that's what he did, sami therefore knows pilchard stayed at home and staved off a mob hit
    mob knows it

    he does know that nutjob is 100% innocent
    he lucked out and gained half a day

    he got LUCKY

    ok nutjob will spew hits guts out at 1:55pm today just like he did yesterday. it will be interesting to see what he says

    I VOTE TO KILL NUTJOB
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2006
     
    this is amazing. bgk will have no clue what is going on but it almost doesn't matter. as long as he keeps fan alive. and he will

    pilchard will be looking for all these clues and there are none because the mob is clueless too

    this could be unreal if we win this
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2006
     
    perfect post for us by bgk
    • CommentAuthorchrisjp
    • CommentTimeApr 30th 2006
     
    nutjob is getting more fun out of this than anyone, except nside. :)

    i can't wait to talk to nutjob.....