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    • CommentAuthornsidestrate
    • CommentTimeMay 7th 2006 edited
     
    Here is a place for the dead people to discuss the action in Game 4
  1.  
    I think the innocents are going to win.
    • CommentAuthormalteg
    • CommentTimeMay 7th 2006
     
    Hi everyone!
    • CommentAuthormalteg
    • CommentTimeMay 7th 2006
     
    I should have followed my gut and not have played Game 4 - I was sooooo bad!

    ;-(
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeMay 7th 2006
     
    As much as I would like to... I guess I should not comment in here just yet... I'm trying to take notes as the game goes on, though, so I should be able to produce a mod's eye run-down at the end.
  2.  
    OK, there are 6 players alive. Three confirmed innocent and three unknowns. The unknowns are Elmo, TheWhale and Nutjob. Two of them are mafia.

    The detective almost certainly investigated one of them. 33% of the time he knows that final innocent and the game is over.

    The other 66% of the time, he knows one is mafia. The town kills tha mafia and the mafia kills jr. Now it is 3-1 and they have a 50/50 shot at killing the last mafia.

    If the detective has investigated two of them, it is also over.
  3.  
    Oh yeah -- I had one of the remaining mafia identified on night 2. Too bad I was dead.
  4.  
    malteg, I think you did fine. I wouldn't have tried the doctor stunt, but it did help you guys find the real doctor, which was critical for you to have a chance.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeMay 7th 2006
     
    I'm looking forward to seeing if my last prediction comes mostly true.

    Last time I wrote I thought Nutjob and Whale were mafia. (I also suspected Ogre at the time, and was wrong about that, but I think his later posts would have made me change my mind anyway).

    One key to this game, I thought, was how Fan inexplicably blew himself up.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeMay 7th 2006
     
    Another comment.

    I thought the mafia played very well. But I think that a lot of their success, frankly, had to do with mistakes we innocents made.

    A few of the innocents who were lynched, I believe, did not make enough of an effort to defend themselves. I may have changed my vote, or at least my belief, about a couple of them if they had simply shown a more vigorous defense.
  5.  
    Elmo is mobbed up. The detective has outed him. He was the one I made on the first day.

    That means is either Nutjob or TheWhale. This is the most interesting endgame possible.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeMay 7th 2006
     
    I can't remember why, but at some point I was definitely more convinced of Nutjob's guilt than Whale's. But I haven't really followed their posts as closely in the past couple of days.

    Death has a way of making a guy less focused.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeMay 7th 2006
     
    I missed the detective outing Elmo. Did that happen a while ago?
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeMay 7th 2006
     
    Oh, I see it now.

    Elmo played very well.
    • CommentAuthormalteg
    • CommentTimeMay 8th 2006
     
    I know it but...

    Who do you guys think is the last remaining innocent?
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeMay 8th 2006
     
    This endgame is verrrry interesting. I'm watching very intently, rooting for my living brothers to avenge my death.

    Both sides have played very well. Malt- I think you played fine. At least you lived longer than I.
  6.  
    I think it is a mistake to vote for the unknown mafia player today. They should pretend to do that and all switch to Elmo. That way they get some information without risk. They will also get information from who the remaining player chooses to kill tonight. Making the final decision today is a bad idea, I think.
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeMay 8th 2006
     
    I'd be surprised if they didn't do that, actually.

    Although, I don't think jrspm has actually come out and said 100% he investigated Elmo. He has insinuated that he has, but he could've very possibly investigated someone else and be trying to flush Elmo out as well.

    Maybe he HAS come out and said 100% he investigated Elmo. But I don't think he has, yet. I think it's a great play for jrspm to stay silent for now.
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeMay 8th 2006
     
    which reminds me - there's a variation in which you only get to vote once each day, and can't change... I think...
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeMay 8th 2006
     
    You know I thought a cool role to have in future games would be "ghost" or "restless spirit" or something. After you are killed, you can still participate in discussions, but you cannot vote or anything like that.

    I don't know, just a silly idea I had in passing the other day.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeMay 8th 2006
     
    I love Elmo's post suggesting that JR is making a ploy by pretending that he found out Elmo was mafia.

    If it's actually true, which I don't believe, I'd love the whole thing even more.
  7.  
    I also think Elmo was the wrong person to investigate, since he was (to me) the most obviously mafia player in the group.
  8.  
    I don't think they are going to change to Elmo. They are going to do or die right here, right now.
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeMay 8th 2006
     
    Last four minutes are going to be exciting...
  9.  
    Rats!
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeMay 8th 2006
     
    What happened?
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeMay 8th 2006
     
    Nsidestrate wrote:

    "Rats!"

    Talking about the outcome or the remaining mafia?

    ; - )
  10.  
    The outcome. I wanted the good guys to win, since I was one. Well done, mafia boys.