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    • CommentAuthornsidestrate
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006 edited
     
    Ask and ye shall receive. I have a lot of things to vent about. I'll post more shortly.
    • CommentAuthormalteg
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    Am I right that you investigated both Bugs and me?
  1.  
    First of all, I hope the doctor is coming to the convention. I'm going to smack them upside the head.
  2.  
    <blockquote>Am I right that you investigated both Bugs and me?</blockquote>Actually, I didn't investigate either one of you. I thought Bugs was a bad choice to investigate early on because he was so likely to get himself killed in the first few days. I assumed if he didn't get killed in the first few days that either he was mafia or the mafia was setting him up so that we would lynch him. It was my operating theory right away that they were hoping for us to kill him. I really was focused on looking for clues for that early.

    I still had Bugs on my long list of possible mafia players when I died (there were five names on that list), but he wasn't on my short list (there were three names on that list). I was very, very focused on trying to test him and find him out if he was mafia. I was becoming increasingly convinced he was not the more we talked.

    You were on my list of people I was certain were innocent despite the fact that I didn't investigate you. The "secret" tell I discovered proved that you were innocent to me.
  3.  
    I believe that I have completely figured this game out, but I don't know if I should blurt it all out or make this more fun to read by discussing this in order by time or what.
    • CommentAuthormalteg
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    It's late.

    Blurt it out! ;-)
    • CommentAuthormalteg
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    Bugs is tilting so badly... I wonder if he is going to give reasons WHY he thinks exactly Pizza and irish are mafia.
  4.  
    By the way, I'm pretty sure that my innocent brethren are going to lose. Bugs is telling the truth when he claims to be the doctor. He is the only one smart enough, dumb enough and crafty enough to have done it that way.

    The big problem is that they are going to try to follow the breadcrumbs I left, but I wasn't trying to leave a trail, because I thought there was no possible way I would die.
    • CommentAuthormalteg
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    I agree on everything.
    • CommentAuthormalteg
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    ... with the possible exception of "smart enough". His plays just didn't make sense to me. We would have won this game the easy way just because of your investigations.
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    nside, was I even close to what you were trying to do? I was convinced I was on to something, but now not so much.
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    And I hate laying blame, but I really think the doctor screwed the game up really, really badly.

    Nside, who exactly did you investigate and what did you find?
    • CommentAuthormalteg
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006 edited
     
    Had he protected himself that night, I might have understood it as he was a likely target for the mafia. But Pizza???

    I think Bugs sometimes believes he can read other people's minds. Then he falls in love with his own assumptions.
  5.  
    OK. I'll try to construct a reaosnably complete narrative of what I did and why. I'll post every few paragraphs so you don't have to wait for me to type everything.

    I investigated Angel-fish on the first night. I wanted someone I could trust that I didn't think would get hit on the first night. I didn't want to waste an investigation and she is quite tricky -- I didn't want her as a mafia. I was told that she was innocent.

    I knew I was going to have to reveal right away because I was pretty sure I would get hit very fast otherwise. I knew I was going to try to get a no lynch, but I wanted to get as many votes as we could before I did.

    My main tells I would look for on day one is people who are pushing the discussion, especially people that you wouldn't always expect to do so. I find that to be a presumption of innocence. My first likely innocents were Malteg, Pizza and Griff. Malteg because he attacked Irish super-fast, Griff because he posted hasty goofed-up detective ideas and Pizza because he led a no-vote movement before I revealed. I didn't much like SuitedJock because he posted early with almost no content and laid low. This is often a mafia pattern,
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    Ok I have to bounce out for a little but when i come back I look foward to reading everything and discussing more.
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    Malteg, I agree. Protecting Pizza instead of nside is pretty nuts.
  6.  
    Night 2, I investigated Nutjob. I figured they would probably hit him or Bugs, but I believed I could determine if Bugs was guilty or not by talking to him. Nutjob is way too slippery. I was convinced I would never figure out if he was innocent or not without investigating him. I didn't have a good enough reason to investigate anyone else.

    Based on my early suspicion of him and more imprtantly that I thought if he was innocent, Fumseck was guilty and if he was guilty I was happy to get a mobster, I tried to gently steer a SJ lynch. I tried to generate as much heat, noise and argument as possible.

    I refined my "secret" innocent tell that night. Cybrarian didn't show up for almost two hours after the vote closed. Several people hung around, showing up frequently on the "Off-Topic" forum list for a long, long time. They were clearing refreshing the screen, hoping to learn if we got a mafia member. This is a prfound innocent tell. The mafia knew SuitedJock was innocent. They didn't need to read about it from Cybrarian. People that I became sure were innocent based on this tell were Malteg, Pizza, Irish and Bugs. Fumseck was around at the end, but split immediately. I was now pretty certain he was mafia. I almost investigated Evvv that night because I was so sure that Fumseck was mafia. However, I was afraid that if I made a mistake it would damage my credibility, so I investigated him.

    I set up the lynch the way I did very carefully. I wanted everyone to commit to a list of three because I thought I would find suspicious bahavior from the mafia. I figured one or more of them would resist and if they did post a list, they would post it late and safe. I figured once I revealed that I KNEW Funseck was mafia, the people who made their first appearance to put in a "me too" vote were very suspicious.

    I also knew Irish was innocent and I suspected Evv to be another mafia player. Fumseck has a post where he knew Evv worked for the police and I thought that may have come up in the mafia forum. I thought the mafia didn't lynch me because they were tricky theory was absurd.

    I became convinced Bugs was innocent during the day, so I pretended that there would be a Pizza vs Bugs confrontation to discourage the mafia from killing either one of them the next day. They would figure a Pizza v Bugs match would be great for them.

    At this point, I most suspected for the last two mafia:
    Spoonie
    Fatshaft
    Evv

    I still considered these guys on my longer list:
    Girff
    Bugs
    • CommentAuthormalteg
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006 edited
     
    Wow, I always tried to follow your lines of thinking during the game, but now I see I didn't even come close. ;-(
  7.  
    The way the vote went down, I became even more convinced Spoonie was another mafia player. In his post where he lists all the suspects, the tone of his mention of Fumseck set off huge alarm bells. I was becoming quite sure that both he and Evv were the other two mafia. I choose to investigate Spoonie on the night I was killed and Cyb was good enough to confirm to me that I would have found my second consecutive mafioso.

    I still thought Evv was the remaining mafia player. I sent Spoonie a PM telling him I knew he was mafia too and he got very lucky that they killed me. He indicated that they were suprised because he thought I was the doctor. That is when I realized that Bugs or Pizza had to be the doc, because no one else would have taken those kind of chances. He didn't protect me, he protected Nutjob. The mafia must have been baffled. Hell, I'm still baffled.

    During the posts today, it became very clear to me that Evv is not in fact the third mafia player, fatshaft is. Evv's frustration at being unable to get people to see what he knew to be the truth was so palpable and real that there is no way he could have been faking it. I knew I was wrong and that he wasn't the third mafia player.

    Fatshaft was on my early suspect list for making utterly non-commitall posts and he jumped on the Fumseck train at the end and he was the only one left on my short list. I was becoming more and more convinced of Griff and Bugs.

    There's a bunch more, but that is the main stuff. I'll read the stuff you guys posted and answer any questions you might have.
  8.  
    I was trying very hard to disguise my thinking and to manipulate the mafia. On day 2, I really wanted to make them think I investigated Bugs so that they would kill him. Then I would know if he was innocent or guilty ;) Later I started to try to protect him and Pizza by suggesting I would put them on the block.

    A lot of stuff was to throw them off the trail and keep them from realizing who I knew to be innocent.

    If I knew that I could have died at any time, I would have played it quite a bit differently. I would have been very open about everything I knew and everything I suspected so that the town would have the information they needed to win after I died.

    I honestly never even considered the possibility that the doctor wouldn't protect me. I was completely floored when I found out I died. I pride myself on the fact that I don't tilt at poker, but I was absolutely on super-mafia tilt. I'm still sorta pissed off, a whole day later. We would have won sooooo easy. There was no need to heroic measures by Bugs. If he played it safe, we were totally in the driver's seat.
  9.  
    I feel better now. ;)
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    I'm way behind at work ........ grrrrrr

    funny bunny better pull this one out of the hat, or he is going to be in deep doo doo....

    he seems convinced Pizza is mafia and I don't know if I've ever seen a more innocent innocent!
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    I'll be back later......

    Glad you're feeling better Nside.... tough day for you yesterday... ugh..
  10.  
    I hope that he is playing some sort of game, because Pizza is someone who could not possibly be more obviously innocent.
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    Wow, nside, I was completely off...

    I'm going to read the main thread right now though.
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    Oh boy, it looks like we may be in trouble.
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    You know, if my original movement on day two to lynch Spoonie gained momentum, I would've been looked at as the greatest genius of all time?
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    I don't think he's playing any games ....

    I think he's dead serious and on tilt.....

    Hopefully Pizza can convince him and/or the others don't go crazy .... could work if mafia types jump on.....
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 12th 2006
     
    Did you investigate Irish?

    Because he just did the fastest hop on to the Pizza train in mafia history?
  11.  
    I didn't investigate Irish, but I feel very sure he's innocent. He really trusts Bugs and is going to be too easily swayed. If you are leading the group, it is important to really force them to make choices or the town doesn't learn anything. The worst played games by the innocents all feature the kind of true "lynch mob" mentality. A leader or two points towards a target and everyone runs like a pack a dogs after them. It is easy to play that as a mafia player.

    The closest thing to a tell you get in those cases is usually a player who expresses reservations about the lynch but "reluctantly" goes along. This can be a mafia player who wants to have something to point at later (*I* never wanted to lynch Pizza). Notice that Spoonie says yesterday "Hmm Nsides gone I'll latch on to bugs." In other words, "you can't blame me, I'm just a follower."

    Fatshaft is playing well for a newbie -- he is pointing Bugs as his target of suspicion. After they lynch an innocent, it will relatively easy to get people to see Bugs as a fake. They might even say that his doctor declare is a fake. He won't make the case himself, though. He'll just lay the groundwork and hope someone else runs with it.

    It probably doesn't matter. Neither one is much on anyone's radar. Why, Bugs, Why? He was trying to do the best possible job of preventing a kill every night. But that isn't needed -- he knew as well as anyone that losing an innocent is no big deal. Losing the detective is worth three regular innocents. When the town is way behind, you might need to try to get a save as the doctor , but we were going so, so well. We didn't need to get a save.

    bb88: I think the mafia kill of you was a good one. They wanted to make sure that Bugs didn't protect their target and they have you, Bugs and Pizza as the most obvious and accepted innocents. Of the three, you were the most unlikely to be protected. It will be interesting to see who they pick tonight. If I was them, I'd go with Irishiain.

    Doctor saves are going to be the best hope for the innocents now. After tonight, it will be 4-2. If we don't get a good lynch the next day, we lose.
  12.  
    Oh yeah, it is a bad idea to make it clear what your plan for the next day is. It makes it too easy for the mafia to manipulate the town by picking the right victim.

    If it goes the way it looks like it will, the town's plan for the next day (at 4-2) should be to manipulate the vote in as many ways as they can (Bugs is good at this aspect of the game) and in the end do a no vote. That way when the mafia kills someone, the odds will be better (3-2) and the town will have a 40% chance to hit a mobster instead of a 33% chance.
  13.  
    I think they are going to end up lynching either Evv or Angel-fish.
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    Nside, in retrospect I think it probably was a bad idea to to talk about my plans for the next day. But I wasn't set on Evv. I really started to think he was more innocent towards the end.

    And I agree the mafia made a good play killing me. I actually anticipated dying, I figured the mafia would try and go for someone who they didn't think would be protected and who everyone seemed to trust. I figured it was between me or Pizza.

    Am I the only one who thinks irish has played much better this game than he has before?

    Nside, if you are the doctor, who do you protect?
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    I think I'd either self-protect or go for irish. I don't think the mafia goes for Pizza tonight.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006 edited
     
    I wish I could go repost this about 100 times in a row in the game thread.

    Not to pat myself on the back ...OK, I'm patting! ...... but I vowed to myself this game to go with my GUT reads. No second and third-guessing of myself and trying to find elaborate links and tells (EDIT: simple tells work better I think .. Nside the checking of the thread and who is online during "dead" time is a GREAT one ... I had the same idea but didn't know exactly how to process it).... bb, you made a great post about taking things at face value... so, yes, I had a couple of other people as suspicious at this point, but it was, what Day 2? (Edit: So, here was my list and the main reason I post it here is because - as Cyb can attest - my "early" game reads haven't been so hot):

    (9) fatshaft: Suspicious. Man of few words - in this game and other threads he he has responded to lately - His edited post made me think innocent - but there is a Game 2 Wynton-esque quality to his "Noobness" that I don't like. He plays the "noob" thing and then, boom is on to Bugs with clarity and reasoning? And he keeps nagging SJ, which in itself is a good thing, but I will get to SJs complete lack of posting later.

    (Shark Tank comment: his latest list is a joke... he lists every single obvious innocent as suspicious)

    (16) Fumseck: Suspicious/mafia. Keeps coming up with strange theories about Nside. Keeps saying Nside better come up with a mafia soon. Uh, Fumseck, the chances of Nside investigating a mafia aren't really that great in the early going. There are only three. I didn't want to say this right off the bat, but I think as innocents, we have had at least a slight advantage from the get-go just because of the numbers. Seems to be banking on the so-called heavy-hitters being put under suspicion for being around more than a few days.

    (Shark Tank comment: DEAD MAFIA, glad I could help a little in my short life)

    (9) Spoonie: Are you kidding? That's it? You posted more in a half-day in Game 2 and convinced me of your innocence. Suspicious.

    (Shark Tank comment: Oh boy, slipping through the cracks into mafia nirvana. They have completely forgotten about him. Hopefully (and I think it will happen if he stays alive long enough), Pizza will re-evaluate everybody... maybe Funny Bunny will, too)

    So, boiled down it looks like this:

    Most suspicious (in no order):
    fatshaft
    Fumseck
    Irish
    Spoonie
    SteveGriff

    (Shark Tank comment: Game, Set, Match.)
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    bb wrote: Am I the only one who thinks irish has played much better this game than he has before?

    Well, if Irish of Day 3 or 4 on woulda showed up in the first place, I would say yes. This whole lay-low early so the mafia won't kill me thing drives me NUT(S)JOB!

    It confuses the innocents and helps the mafia. BLECH....
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    Nside wrote: The worst played games by the innocents all feature the kind of true "lynch mob" mentality. A leader or two points towards a target and everyone runs like a pack a dogs after them. It is easy to play that as a mafia player.

    That's why I would have bowed out if it were a majority-vote game. The plurality vote makes it more a game of behavior. Much more interesting. The majority vote game leans toward who votes for whom and when ... too sterile IMO.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    Nside wrote: Night 2, I investigated Nutjob. I figured they would probably hit him or Bugs, but I believed I could determine if Bugs was guilty or not by talking to him. Nutjob is way too slippery. I was convinced I would never figure out if he was innocent or not without investigating him. I didn't have a good enough reason to investigate anyone else.

    I obviously figured I would be an early investigation after my Game 4 business, but I was hoping to convince whoever the Det. was of my innocence ASAP so as not to waste an investigation..... But, considering the source, I take this as the best mafia compliment I could receive! ; - )

    I was thinking if I was the Det. I would investigate all the notorious lay-low types and deal with any "heavy-hitters" later - which is what you did, save for me, which I fully understand.....

    The Bunny PMd me after I was deaded and told me I got to live one more night than I was supposed to... I was pretty drunk when I read it and took it to mean that he was mafia and he wanted to kill me first instead of TRK... so I called him a mafia scumbag, told him that was my "bluff" in my list, and wished him well nonetheless... he replied that he was the Doc, which I actually suspected when I typed my innocent take on him. I wasn't convinced he was innocent when I made my list, but that was my gut read and I went with it. It seemed he was trying to walk the fine line of appearing a little suspicious but not lynchable.....

    There was no "bluff" in my list, I just wanted anybody who needed to see one to see one - if that makes sense.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    OK, good to get all that out ... I'm off to play poker (remember that game?) hehehe

    Nside, one last thing for now ... your VRR post about getting knocked from your detective perch maybe being tougher to take than busting out of a potential ME seat on a two-outer made me smile.

    I get it.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    yes, Pizza spotted fatshaft's list and just made a hilarious post about it!

    Go Pizza!!!
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    Pizza if you ever read this:

    Nutjob wrote about fatshaft: (Shark Tank comment: his latest list is a joke... he lists every single obvious innocent as suspicious)

    Go Double Cheese!
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    Pizza, THAT is the post of the game.

    Sedatives for Funny Bunny ain't too shabby ( Hey Bugs! ; - ) )...............

    But that may be the winner!

    "8 players remaining .... 7 mafia"

    ROFLMAO!
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    Ok, last Redpillian moment for me:

    OMG, they both just came out for damage control Pizza! .... Spoonie a little more subtly of course............ get them!
  14.  
    I am extremely impressed by Pizza. I think he is a very strong player. His instinctive reasctions are very good.
  15.  
    To respond to some comments, I do agree that investigating the low lying players is a perfectly good detective strategy. Investigating the heavy hitters runs the risk of wasting your early investigations. It isn't teriible, because if someone like you or me or Bugs is mafia, you would sure like to get rid of them early.

    Nutjob, your initial list was extremely accurate. There was a reason that they killed you right away.

    I think Irish is playing his best game so far. During the day that I put him for the vote I thought it became very clear that he wasn't mobbed up.
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    SInce I can't do it anywhere else, I'd like to thank Bugs here for making the game interesting :D
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    "The big problem is that they are going to try to follow the breadcrumbs I left, but I wasn't trying to leave a trail, because I thought there was no possible way I would die."

    It's all very Life of Brian :)

    Shoe follower: He has given us... his shoe!
    Arthur: The shoe is the sign. Let us follow His example.
    Spike: What?
    Arthur: Let us, like Him, hold up one shoe and let the other be upon our foot, for this is His sign, that all who follow Him shall do likewise.
    Eddie: Yes.
    Shoe Follower: No, no, no. The shoe is...
    Youth: No.
    Shoe Follower: ...a sign that we must gather shoes together in abundance.
    Girl: Cast off...
    Spike: Aye. What?
    Girl: ...the shoes! Follow the Gourd!
    Shoe Follower: No! Let us gather shoes together!
    Frank: Yes.
    Shoe Follower: Let me!
    Elsie: Oh, get off!
    Youth: No, no! It is a sign that, like Him, we must think not of the things of the body, but of the face and head!
    Shoe Follower: Give me your shoe!
    Youth: Get off!
    Girl: Follow the Gourd! The Holy Gourd of Jerusalem!
    Follower: The Gourd!
    Harry: Hold up the sandal, as He has commanded us!
    Arthur: It is a shoe! It is a shoe!
    Harry: It's a sandal!
    Arthur: No, it isn't!
    Girl: Cast it away!
    Arthur: Put it on!
    Youth: And clear off!
    Shoe Follower: Take the shoes and follow Him!
    Girl: Come,...
    Frank: Yes!
    Girl: ...all ye who call yourself Gourdenes!
    Spike: Stop! Stop! Stop, I say! Stop! Let us-- let us pray. Yea, He cometh to us, like the seed to the grain.
  16.  
    I've been following the game very closely the last couple of days. It's really interesting how big the change is in irish's posting behaviour. The sea change would normally bring about suspicion but he's making so much sense that I am pretty confident he is innocent.
  17.  
    I still don't know whether to be flattered or pissed off by my early exit from this game...
    • CommentAuthornsidestrate
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006 edited
     
    <blockquote>SInce I can't do it anywhere else, I'd like to thank Bugs here for making the game interesting </blockquote>No one but Bugs would have left me unprotected and we would have won in two consecutive days otherwise, so I have to agree. I still have some small hope that they can prevail in the endgame, but Spoonie is so well disguised to them now that I'm not sure they will ever get him. Maybe they can get Fatshaft, but I think they will turn on Angela for the last lynch.

    Surely Bugs doesn't really suspect Pizza. I'm assuming that he is pretending to suspect him so that they might both be alive for the end game. It creates an interesting option for the mafia. If Bugs keeps pretending to suspect to suspect him and the rest of the players appear to support that then the mafia can hit Pizza tonight instead of Irishiain.

    Nice Python reference. I love Life of Brian -- I think it is underappreciated.