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  1.  
    Pizza said he would stop by around 11 tonight, if anyone will be up.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    The town is in trouble, but this isn't over yet......
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    Pizza I will be on here late night after the Heat game....

    might be more like 2-2:30 EDT....
  2.  
    Assuming that the mafia get a clean hit tonight, the best strategy for the town would be to pretend to have a lynching, but in the end for people to no vote. They get to gain more information in two ways. They will get whatever the vote tells them and they will get to learn who the mafia lynches for a second night. At that point it will be down to 3-2 and it will be do or die. But the town has a better chance with 3-2 than 4-2.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006 edited
     
    yep, and Bugs has to protect himself tonight .... which I'm pretty sure he will - he's got to be in a tailspin...... who the hell else would he protect right now....

    If I'm mafia I keep

    Evv
    Angel
    SteveG

    because they all have looked suspicious at some point...

    I hit Irish (assuming he's an innocent)

    I would not, under any circumstances try to hit Bugs tonight.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006 edited
     
    You just couldn't resist, could you....

    (the pitiful wailing post)

    hehehehehehehe
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    Nside: The best strategy for the town would be to pretend to have a lynching, but in the end for people to no vote......


    Well, Bugs has hinted at this. He might try it, but if he does, WILL ANYONE care?!?!
  3.  
    Bugs could easily get lycnhed, especially if one of the mafia was willing to be a fake doctor.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    hmmmmm, Spoonie could make that play.

    Don't think it would work with Fat.

    But yes, Bugs has some splaining to do! (to the town) (well, probably in here, too)

    Man I hope the town wins... I know Bugs took a Silly Wabbit risk and put a near lock of a win into a crapshoot outcome, but I'm starting to feel bad for him....
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    Ialready know you don't Nside, so don't even type it....

    ..LOL

    Pizza, too!
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    "You just couldn't resist, could you....

    (the pitiful wailing post)

    hehehehehehehe"

    nside - maybe I'm just in the position of already knowing everything, but don't you think that looks a little bit like code for "oi -innocents! you're barking up completely the wrong tree!"?
  4.  
    I didn't mean it that way, but I understand how you could see it that way. I just meant, oi innocents, you've screwed this up thus far!. I should have resisted the temptation. I'm sorry.
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    lol - no worries really. I've deleted it, but I'm sure it wouldn't have done any harm. I'm just ultra ultra sensitive (much to bugs' annoyance) it seems when modding this game.
  5.  
    The innocents are screwed beyond hope anyhow.
  6.  
    Perhaps not beyond ALL hope, but it is ugly.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    Ugly indeed.....

    Innocents can still win ...... they all just need to go through all the remaining players THEMSELVES ....... and maybe ...... they can recover.

    Bugs needs to clear his head and regroup.... try to start fresh with no bias and re-read everybody who is left.... he can do it... spoonie (who has played a very good game) is there for him if the drawer on his "innocent" file cabinet isn't already locked.....
  7.  
    There is such a strong tendency to focus on the events of the past 24 hours, when often the best clues can be found earlier.
  8.  
    I think Bugs suspects Spoonie least of all.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    You're right and you're (unfortunately) probably right....

    He's reeling right now and pretty down on hinself.... I'm hoping he decides to try to get a fresh "read" on everyone....

    tough to do at this stage, especially when you've been wrong so much. How can he believe any of his reads now? ... will be interesting to see if he still can influence anyone..... or even himself.

    Hopefully someone else brings up spoonie or fatshaft (we ARE sure about him, right?) and others can see something as well....

    Obviously if you had lived - even one more day - this would be entirely different, but the mafia have played pretty darn good......
  9.  
    Pizza should be here shortly...
  10.  
    I can't remember if Cyb actually confirmed that it was fatshaft, but I'm quite sure. I think he said something enigmatic, like "its a good thing you're dead then."
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    well, it seems obvious to me .... that it's fat .... but I've kind of stopped looking, just kind of watching .....

    spoonie would have been a little tougher for me I think ..... hard to tell now that I already know....

    I'm going into the super busy time of my night as this Heat game winds down ... but I'll chime in when I get the chance
  11.  
    You do realtime betting?
  12.  
    There have been some great scalping chances tonight. Dallas is just too good for Miami. I don't know if Miami has the heart to get back in this.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    real-time betting .... hehehe


    nope. I design the sports pages for a paper in South Florida
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    I agree about the Mavs ..... and for selfish reasons I want a SWEEP!
  13.  
    The thing I am most relieved about is that I wasn't dealing with a mafioso Bugs. Finding that out would have hurt deeply. I was looking to Nside for clues and fortunately read them right.
  14.  
    Am bummed about the read on Griff but also baffled by his approach to the game as though he wasn't taking it seriously - just a lark
  15.  
    Can understand a little more now as to why Bugs could suffer a 850 BB downswing (sorry, Rabbit !)
  16.  
    when Griff and EW (my 2 prime suspects) show up at the last moment to cast votes for me, felt I was on the money. Were they pissed at me or did they think I was mafia cuz I was accusing them and they know they're innocent ?
  17.  
    Those last minute votes are probably going to hang the town.
  18.  
    I struggled with Bugs' identity a few times too. With two of the most prominent players as the doctor and detective, we are lucky we got off to as good of a start as we did.
  19.  
    I wouldn't mind being put in jeopardy if it won information. But if you are right about fat and spoonie splitting their votes then there was no info gained whatever
  20.  
    I've got an early morning. I'm not sure how long I will hang out here.
  21.  
    When your slate of candidates dowsn't include a mafia player, it is hard to put much pressure on them. ;)
  22.  
    there were a couple of times I wanted to say

    I vote to lynch fatshaft for offering nothing but utter nonsense and was going to finish the comment with "I mean, can someone really remain drunk for 96 hours ?"
  23.  
    By the way, is it fat and spoon with 100% certainty or are we speculating here ?
  24.  
    All my friends have the game as over 188 or 189. The total is 187 with a minute to go. They should be happy.
  25.  
    spoonie is 100% and fatshaft is 99.999% I'm personally 100% on both.
  26.  
    If I had remained alive, it's possible I might have focused on fat at some point but Spoonie probably never. Will look forward to your detailing of your reasons at some point.

    Will let you go.
  27.  
    Its buried back there. It was the way he talked about Fumseck early on most of all.
  28.  
    Hey, Nut. Just saw you will be in around 2:00 or so. Definitely coming back for that !

    And let me say that I am in awe of the links and 2nd and 3rd level thinking that I've seen expressed by the folks in this thread. I have a LOT to learn. I am humbled.
  29.  
    It was this line:

    "Fumseck - Seems to be defending himself against a lot of accusations, can't really get a read, Neutral "

    Once I knew Fumseck was mafia, I went back and reviewed every post made by anyone about Fumseck or to Fumseck. This post really jumped out at me. He had obviously been paying close attention Fumseck to have the observation that he was being attacked a lot but the throw away "no read -- neutral" didn't make any sense given that. He should have said "something seems wrong -- suspicious" and I would have ignored him completely. His comment on Evv "Haven't really got an opinion at the moment. Neutral " had me convinced that Evv was the third mafia member.

    That's why I put Evv up along with Fumseck. I thought it would force strong support of Irish by Evv, Fumseck and the other mafia player. It didn't work out as well as I might have liked.
  30.  
    Later I decided that Evv might not be mafia, in which case the other mafia would vote late for Fumseck after I revealed in as unobtrusive a way as they could manage. That covered both of them, as it turns out.
  31.  
    While you are still here...Am worried that my "Swing Low Sweet Chariot" bit at the end of Day might have been a little over the top and I sure as heck hope that played no part in the decision Bugs made that night.
  32.  
    What did you think of that post by fatshaft that mentioned Fumseck as the 5th heavy hitter that I referenced at the start of Day 5 ? Anything to be gleaned from it ?
  33.  
    I was watching the end of the game and your question got me fired up.

    I don't think you had anything to do with Bugs' decision. You know the sayong "When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail?" This is the problem with being the doctor, the only thing you can do is protect and there is a tendency to overthink your decisions. A less creative player would just protect the detective every night and not even think twice about it. Sometimes the bold play by the doctor could make the difference between winning and losing and then you are glad to have a guy like Bugs. If the mob had hit you that night, he would have looked brilliant.

    I think that the decision to protect you did color his thinking and led to your lynch today. He couldn't stop thinking about that choice and it eventually led him to the conclude that the reason that they hit me instead of the "obvious" choice to hit you was because you were actually mafia.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 13th 2006
     
    I'll be back later Pizza, still in Heat hell ......

    But your post of fat's list and the comment that came with it got my hopes up....

    Bugs calling Spoonie a calling station did, too.......

    It's still not over, but we shall see.....
  34.  
    I bought his argument that he was merely listing players who had posted a lot. I should have been more suspicious.
  35.  
    Pilchard made some awesome moves as doc. And it will be very interesting reading in the mafia den about that night.