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    TRK, what was YOUR early read on Bugs as you watched this game ?
    Early, I had some minor suspicions. I think nside put him under the spotlight and he squirmed a bit - made him look a little suspicious. But you have to remember that Bugs makes mistakes when under time pressure. Look at his posting pattern in Game 5 where he had to attend a wedding mid-game.

    The fact that nside let him out of his sights to run free and he returned to his standard posting technique sealed his innocence pretty quickly after that.
    Bugs will feel such deep remorse before Nside and how this game has unravelled and this will be the apex point of the pain - whereas Nside had a hit on his Spoonie investigation, Bugs has apparently protected Spoonie.

    I hope that this will be the lowest of the low for Bugs and that he will rally strongly (or even later today) in his next game and give a command performance.
    I actually feel bad for Bugs now. I think he just lost his way on this game at some point.

    In terms of me letting Bugs off the hook, my plan was to look like I investigated Bugs and knew him to be innocent. My belief was that the mafia was leaving him alive in order to make the innocents lynch him. Once I hinted so strongly that I knew he was innocent, I expected the mafia to hit him (confirming his innocence for me) or to leave him alive and increase my suspicion of him as mafia.
    There were times yesterday that I was siezed with mortal fear about Bugs' true identity. But I was looking to Nside for clues and decided to trust them. However there were points yesterday that I either a) thought Nside had found Bugs guilty and was keeping him alive just a touch longer in the hopes he'd reveal some links or b) Nside was so certain that his heavy hitter would be gone that he didn't investigate him and Bugs was in fact guilty. Instead Nside boldly decided he could rely on his own read.

    However, if Bugs was mafia I was anticipating taking heat from our innocents on "Pizza, how could you POSSIBLY swallow these "I protected Nutjob" stories. No true doctor would try shenanigans like that.

    Again, I was banking everything on the clues Nside was leaving me (and everyone) regarding Bugs.
    Hold the front page!

    It looks like evv98 might have made the play of the game! Great spot on irish's vote for Fumseck. Fuck yeah! Go innocents.

    He's gotta turn Bugs around!
    I completely understand how Spoonie could have slipped through the radar. That is frequently the mafia goal in playing the game. I got a little lucky in that there are things that set off alarms to me that wouldn't set them off to other people.

    I don't really understand how you could become completely convinced of his innocence, though. Do you guys?
    I know that fanofbilickihair (who was a moron, EW98 is NOT a moron) voted for himself and it was the silly act of an innocent.

    How should I have regarded EW's vote for himself ? I just felt he saw that there was no way that the town would take that slate and push it towards either me or Bugs and he resigned. I was not anticipating that Bugs would ratchet up the heat on me or that if he did it would just be a switchoff to flush something out and that EW would see it this way too and say let's just concede.

    As an innocent I would have expected him to fight or plead or something just a bit more.
    Spoonie wrote "Thats an excellent post Evv, "

    That is dripping in irony!
    I worried about my influence regarding Bugs a little because my comments on and about him were aimed entirely at the mafia. He was still on my long list of possible mafia for a very long time.
    Spoonie's "Let's not discuss doctor strategy" was a very big thing for me. It came out of the blue and sounded genuine. And since I was so keyed in on Griff, his "EW voted for Malteg" thing had me saying "Here's a man that's thinking the way I'm thinking".
    No, Bugs is still ragging on Irish...
    Good ole' Irish !
    I do think that Evv handled the situation where it looked like he was going to be lynched badly. His reaction read a good deal like other mafia players had when they knew they were toast.

    People should make summary posts like Evv's more often. They are very useful. I keep something like it on my spreadsheet. I think Angel is probably toast.

    Bugs seems to have completely rejected the lynch no-one idea, but I think that they really should make a switch to lynch no one at the end of the day. If Bugs gets lucky and protects an innocent, they have two known innocents to rally around. If he doesn't then they still get one last chance with one fewer person to distract them.
    In one of my morning posts yesterday I also laid out how the vote for Fumseck cleared Irish but don't think I addressed it towards Bugs
    Come on, evv. Stick a vote down for the Spoon!
    Angel knows she is innocent - so she does have a duty to get in there and mix it up a bit
    And here is the tragic thing about Bugs' push for me. It drew forward the wrong people.
    Does anyone think there's a split vote coming here?

    AF, Irish and evv vote for Spoonie
    Spoonie, fat and Bugs vote for AF
    Could the mafia possibly put a hit on Irish tonight and would that turn on a light a light for Bugs ? If there's a no-lynch (and Angel still alive), it might.
    we'd have so much better odds if that split occurs then what we have now !
    If there was a no lynch and you were mafia, Pizza, who would you hit? Personally, I'd go for AF. I think you'd then get Bugs thinking AF and evv were mafia.
    Sorry... I meant irish and evv in that last bit.
    Your comment Nside about how it's hard to put pressure on the mafia when you field a slate of 2 innocents has made me think afresh here.

    My God, what was I thinking with that Bugs EW98 Pizza slate ???

    I should have taken a little time and then made a bold move into Bugs saying

    "Hey Rabbit, let's try to have ALL THREE of these slots open and available to be filled by a mafia. You think you're innocent, don't you ? So why the heck are you allowing your name to be on this list ? And I think I am innocent so I want to submit a fresh name too.

    If we did that, I think there would have been somewhat of a chance for there to be an angel-Ew-fat slate.

    I have just learned a HUGE lesson here.
    that should read "field a slate of 3 innocents":
    If I was mafia, I would hit Bugs. He has shown that he is willing to swing for the fences and you get unlucky and he protected himself you haven't revealed any more known innocents.
    I also think the mafia should have hit irish last night. They'd be much better off with Griff in Irish's spot right now.
    Oh absolutely. They should have tried to put themselves in Bugs' shoes. He feels terribly about the night you were hit and is obsessed with it - it causes him to suspect me. But I show up as innocent on the lynch. Now he feels he owes a debt to me as well. When he goes back and looks at the reasoning I made during this day for both EW and Griff and sees that those same two showed up late and cast the last two votes to me, he's going to find himself saying "I owe a debt to Pizza. EW and Griff, I'm coming after you".

    I was shocked to see the hit on Griff.
    Time for breakfast. Will be checking in later. GL team.
    Ooh... could Bugs be seeing the light?
    Put a vote down, angel!!!
    Her vote for Irish might just be a very good one (in case Bugs was suspecting these 2 as partners in crime)
    re: the current three who have votes...Ew has made the case for Irishiain's innocence.

    So between angel and spoonie who will he cast a vote for ? Could it be possible he would heed his feelings on Irish and cast a vote for Spoonie in order to make the vote tighter to set up some dynamics.

    Then what will Bugs do with his current vote given he might not have expected an angel vote for irish ? just random speculation
    And EW98 let me apologize to you right now. Yes, I felt that Bugs bump in the night pointed to you. But I see that I am at fault for jumping to conclusions and locking on to them. This game is designed with a lot of dynamic so that conclusions like these can be put to the test. I failed to seek to put those dynamics in motion. And I also had 5 other sets of innocent eyes and ears besides mine for whom I'm absolutely crazy if I don't enlist their help in sniffing things out for us.

    There was not a 100% probability that you were guilty. I should have set up that vote so there were more choices for everyone including yourself. Why, you just might have been innocent and not have wanted to vote for either Bugs or myself.
    I wish I had stayed alive and we won this thing early, but this stage where there is a final vote that wins or loses is absolutely the best thing about the game.

    Its interesting that both the mafia players have committed to a vote for Angel early. That is a risky move.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
    Nside wrote: If I was mafia, I would hit Bugs. He has shown that he is willing to swing for the fences and you get unlucky and he protected himself you haven't revealed any more known innocents.

    If they lynch an innocent AND get a hit the game is OVER, 2-2.......

    So, If Angel dies, they just hit Irish (would he be protected? HIGHLY doubtful)

    I think the mafia have played brilliantly in the past couple of days....

    and this game is going to end in about 2 hours....

    Evv, great post! Unfortunately most likely a case of too little, too late.......
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
    I think it's much, much more stressful to be dead right now than to be alive and still in the game. I'm screaming at my monitor for these guys to win!
    Nutjob: Yeah, that assumes that they don't do a lynch tonight. If they lynch an innocent, then you have to go for the one Bugs is least likely to protect. In a backwards way, that is probably Bugs. You'd have to choose between Bugs, Evv and Irish. That is an interesting scenario. I think Bugs will protect Spoonie or Irish, so I'd hit Evv or Bugs.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
    Some very important lessons to be gleaned from this one:

    1. No FPS early on when it comes to a known Detective.

    2. If you are innocent, you MUST act like one. If you do not, you are HELPING the mafia.

    3. DO NOT get so attached to your beliefs of guilt or innocence that you CANNOT see past your nose.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
    Nside wrote: Nutjob: Yeah, that assumes that they don't do a lynch tonight.

    wasn't reading this part into it... oops.
    No one seems to have realized that lynching no one is the best move here. I think they are too focused on the question of who is mafia (which is understandable).

    It would be awesome if Bugs saved the day by protecting the right person. That would make him feel better for early mistakes and might still lead to an innocent win. I can dream, can't I?
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
    Oh dear, Evv AND Irish have spelled it out ... but it's going to go to waste...

    Only a save from our dear, dear Funny Bunny will give any hope....
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
    33 percent chance Nside, so I'll dream, too
    Nutjob: Those are very good points. #2 is quite important, the best thing an innocent player can do is to post, post, post and make it clear that they are innocent so that they don't cause a lot of false trails. #3 is good too. When you learn something new, you have to be prepared to go back and relook at everything. I did that when we hit Fumseck -- I reevaluated everything in light of what I now knew. Sometimes when you put someone in one category, you never look at them again. This will screw you up bad.

    This is why I keep a spreadsheet of mafia reasons and innocent reasons. Whenever I want to re-evaluate, I can see all my reasons. Sometimes the reasons that looked good early on don't look so good any more.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
    I LOVE your spreadsheet and the ticking off of innocent and mafia tells.... with small notes for either....

    Mine is is a little, uh, rougher around the edges. It works, but needs LOTS of refinement..... but I will use the Nside formula from here on out...

    GREAT way to keep your thoughts organized... If you try to play this game in your head, your, well, dead.
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
    Good list, Nutjob, I'd like to add to your list, could possibly be 1b:

    The mafia is very rarely as tricky as we give them credit for.

    Side rave: Just received three books from the ITH book offer woot.
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
    Next game I plan on getting a notebook of some kind, making a page for every player, and jotting notes on them as I come across thoughts and suspicions. I think it'll help me out a great deal.
    • CommentAuthornsidestrate
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006 edited
    The mafia players will not sign back on today. It looks like Evv and Irish finally figured it out, but a day too late.

    If I had revealed my investigations, they would have angel as a known innocent. How frustrating.

    Bugs shouldn't reveal his strategy for protection. He is smart enough to know this. Therefore, I don't think this is really his strategy. He intends to protect Evv, I think. If he really wanted a random strategy, he should pick randomly between himself and his known innocents. I assume he wants the mafia to think he is most likely to protect himself because he know he will not. If he can force them to pick between Evv and Irish, he has a 50/50 shot at protecting the right one.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
    bb wrote:

    1b: The mafia is very rarely as tricky as we give them credit for.

    YES, this should be 1 all by itself. ..... the rest should follow
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
    Actually 33 percent was not accurate at all.... dammit! He could pretect one of the bad guys........ UGH!