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  1.  
    To continue my logic, if he wants the mafia to think he is most likely to protect himself, that means he will protect either Evv or Irish. By indicating that he intends to attack Irish tomorrow, he may hope that they will leave Irish alive.

    This assumes that he will know that Spoonie and Fatshaft are the two mafia players once Angel is shown to be innocent. That seems obvious to me and both Evv and Irish have posted this, but Bugs may not see it that way.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    bb, that's how I do it .... my notes tend to get scrambled a bit, but since I seem to love organized chaos it works for me....

    If you use a computer-based spreadsheet, you could keep it even cleaner...

    I think I will go with that method next time.
  2.  
    I can't wait to read the mafia thread. They must have been so baffled and unhappy those first few days.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    I follow your logic Nside (there you go swimming in those deep waters again), I just think Irish may be the last player Bugs will protect...
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    Mafia thread should be really good....... I'm still baffled that they could have thought you were a Doctor pretending to be a Detective..... really interested in that part, if it's true...
    • CommentAuthorbb88
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    Yeah, the mafia thread should be really, really interesting. This game has been quite a roller coaster from both sides, their reaction to the whole doctor/detective situation should be really interesting.

    I'd also love to see their endgame discussion. They should be pretty confident right about now... =/
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    Fatshaft wrote: back just in time to see the result, time will tell Irish, but come the morning I think your accomplice will be gone, I still think it's you and Angel, and I've held that conviction for a long time.

    Tomorrow I think our last lynching will be very easy indeed.

    -------

    ha, come the morning all of Irish's accomplices will be gone..... (we're still 99.999999999999 percent sure on Fat, right?) lololol
  3.  
    Has evv voted yet?
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    For Angel
  4.  
    "May Cybrarian have mercy on your souls."

    May nside have mercy on Bugs' soul!
  5.  
    No use pleading now irish...
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    Just to clarify why I think the mafia have played it so well of late... (because, yes, here in the peanut gallery we know some certain things and certain things appear as obvious bad plays by them)......

    They are doing EXACTLY what they need to do to win. They are fueling the RIGHT fires as well as extinguishing the RIGHT fires....

    So, yeah, you can't fool all the people all the time, but you don't have to .... fool enough of them, AND the right ones and you win.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    Well, when it's all said and done and if the innocents lose (likely at this point), I will urge everyone not to give it to Bugs too hard (Nside you are probably exempt from this ; - > .....

    1. He already knows he screwed up big time and is going to be kicking himself already...

    2. It's a game

    3. It's a difficult game

    4. It's EXTREMELY difficult once you get off track and are scrambling to get back on
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006 edited
     
    Maybe, just maybe, Bugs will get Irish's posts and go for a save of him .... I really think the mafia tries to hit Irish .....

    crossing fingers.
  6.  
    I'm not really mad at Bugs. I think he screwed up, but so does he. I might tease him a little, but I understand what he was thinking. I just think he concentrated too much on making heroic moves and not enough on the what was the best for the collective town. I told Suited that night that Bugs was probably the doctor because only Bugs was smart enough to do something that dumb. I mean that as a compliment. Had he saved Pizza that night and we rolled up Spoonie the next day, we would be talking about what a great game he played. There is a bit of results-oriented thinking here.

    On the other hand, I do actually think that a simple strategy was called for in this case. Almost any other doc would have done exactly what we expected him to do, just protect me every night.
  7.  
    Nut: I agree with you that the mafia handled the end game pretty well. The problem is that Bugs completely trusts Spoonie and when Spoonie joined his vote for Angel, he saw that as the key validation that he needed.
  8.  
    Nut, I like your 3 points and I especially need to heed #3. I'd like to add another...

    4. Do the Legwork. I've already mentioned in this thread that I needed to comb through ITH and see if fatshaft was really such a scattershot. Well, I also remember from Game 2 (I believe) that Spoonie was a touch hyperactive as an innocent and got himself in trouble with the town. I needed to go back and carefully compare his posting styles. All this would have taken is about a half hour for fat and maybe an hour or so for Spoon. Would have been well worth it and I was willing to do that for Angel, for instance.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    great post Nside ....
  9.  
    I just got a request from Angel to join our grumbling. She should be here shortly.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    perhaps it should go into the post-game thread....

    Especially if Bugs start to get a beat-down from everyone..
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    Nside wrote: I completely understand how Spoonie could have slipped through the radar. That is frequently the mafia goal in playing the game. I got a little lucky in that there are things that set off alarms to me that wouldn't set them off to other people.

    I don't really understand how you could become completely convinced of his innocence, though. Do you guys?

    ---------------

    This slipped by me this morning, but tough to say because I found out you had investigated him as soon as this thread opened up .... but as we all know, that lay-low crap would not have flown under my radar
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    Pizza wrote: Nut, I like your 3 points and I especially need to heed #3. I'd like to add another...

    4. Do the Legwork.

    ------

    Mmmm, another good one .... I made a post early in Game 4 for EVERYONE to be their own detective... I was mafia, but I didn't care.. some people don't get as obsessed or have the time as others (Hmmm, Nutjob, Pizza, Nside, Bugs etc. perhaps?) so it was easy to hand out good advice that would go unheeded..

    ; - >
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    Angel if and when you get in here, it may take longer to catch up on THIS thread than the game thread.... lol

    We are a scary lot!
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    erp, I'm getting all Redpillian again
  10.  
    The big hitters hang-out!
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    haha, more like the big-shitters
    • CommentAuthornsidestrate
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006 edited
     
    <blockquote>Nutjob said "This slipped by me this morning, but tough to say because I found out you had investigated him as soon as this thread opened up .... but as we all know, that lay-low crap would not have flown under my radar"</blockquote>Why don't more people follow this method? Your questioning of Fumseck made his guilt much more clear. My questioning of Bugs made his innocence much more clear. Irish looked pretty guilty until he was accused, which made him speak up and made his innocence much more convincing. If more innocents followed this approach, they would win a lot more often.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    agreed!!!!!!
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    A lot of this falls back to bb88's point that the Mafia ARE NOT as tricky as we want to believe....

    Remember Nut from Game 2? Remember Sami? I played OK in Game 2 - at least I made myself a known innocent ... but I was so hung up on finding out who was on the grassy noll that I concocted all kinds of elaborate theories and forgot to see the truly obvious.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    It is hard enough being mafia keeping up with the thread and making yourself look innocent and keeping separated from your evil brothers that this nonsense that they ever control the game or are two or three steps ahead is just ridiculous.

    They have no choice but to be reactionary... How well they manage the trouble and how they blend in determines if they win or lose...

    They CANNOT predict the actions of innocents ... ESPECIALLY when there is a detective around
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    OK, Angel is officially deaded ... and there is Irish's vote for Spoonie sticking out like a sore thumb...

    C'mon Doc, make a miracle save!
  11.  
    "that the Mafia ARE NOT as tricky as we want to believe...."

    Absolutely disgusting isn't it ? We didn't make them sweat an ounce (except for Fumseck) and they basically just put it on autopilot (with the caveat that they were, as you said so very well, fueling the right fires and extinguishing the right fires)
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    "Mafia thread should be really good....... I'm still baffled that they could have thought you were a Doctor pretending to be a Detective..... really interested in that part, if it's true..."

    The theory goes, I believe, something along the lines that nside can come out as detective confident that the real detective would have investigated him either on night 1 or will do so on night 2. It would be a fairly risky strategy, but not completely improbable.
  12.  
    meanwhile there were innocents like Griff and Malteg who were causing some of our radars to go off (though I've taken note of some of your tells re: Malteg), diverting our attention.

    And as far as low-liers. Wouldn't we all be more concerned about an EW or an angel than we would about a fat ?
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    cyb, yeah I get the theory... But it's just as ridiculous as most of the theories the innocents cook up about the mafia...

    See recent posts about how tricky the mafia are
    •  
      CommentAuthorangel-fish
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    grumble grumble

    Geez, you guys write a lot. I tried to skim real quick to get the gist of what's happened. I'm wrong about Irish then, but maybe right about Evv98?

    We're screwed, huh?

    I think everything fell apart when Nside died. I just couldn't get my head around the idea that the Doctor would do anything other than protect Nside. So I was never 100% sure if I should be trusting Bugs 'till it was so late that if there was another "real" doctor he would have revealed himself already.

    This is the most confusing game I think I've ever played.
  13.  
    <blockquote>I just couldn't get my head around the idea that the Doctor would do anything other than protect Nside.</blockquote>I had a little bit of trouble with that myself.
    The mafia are Spoonie and fatshaft.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    Yep, Angel we're cooked unless Bugs gets a miracle save in the next hour or two........

    Spoonie is confirmed (from one of Nside's buried investigations) and Fat is the consensus and 99.99999 percent confirmed other mafia. (per a response from cyb to one of Nside's posts)
  14.  
    As you've probably seen Angel, Nside paid tribute to you as he investigated you first.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    Everybody's guesses for who the mafia will hit and who Bugs will protect?
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    I'm off to work...

    I'm going with...

    Hit: Irish

    Protect: ........ Irish (just hoping) .... I think Bugs may protect Spoonie?!?!?!?!
  15.  
    I feel so bad actually about that night in that I was chosen for protection. To some extent am honored, yes, but I REALLY wanted to go that night because I knew I wasn't the doctor. If they take me out, we have two more nights of investigations.
    •  
      CommentAuthorangel-fish
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    Bah, I couldn't get a single one right then. I'm a lousy Innocent. I think the Mafia have way more fun, just because they know so much more about what's going on.
  16.  
    Pizza: Exactly. I wasn't upset about you going either for that same reason. That meant I was going to get two more investigations and either we would have a core group of three or more known innocents or we would have two or more of the mafia identified. I was pretty sure they were going to hit you.

    Of course, I was certain that they had tried to hit me on Night 2 and that there was no chance they could take a chance on that move again. Had I know that they actually hit Nutjob that night, I would have been a lot more worried about everything. I really was overconfident that day -- I was soooooo sure we were going to win.
  17.  
    Angel's post made me realize that my shark avatar is all goofed up. It just shows up as blank space.
  18.  
    "I think the Mafia have way more fun, just because they know so much more about what's going on."

    Interesting ! To me I look at it the totally opposite direction. No more puzzles to figure out except who the doctor and detective are. I love being on the hunt and having to sound things out.
  19.  
    Angel, I was comforted by the fact that you were making early statements each of the past 2 or 3 nights about players you were willing to lynch, stating that you had suspicions of them and your targets were matching my targets. If you had made the 4th vote for me yesterday and said something along the lines of "Bugs, I wanna see.", I would have been fine with that. It's when you said "I don't really think we'll get any info from an EW98 lynch" that it set off alarm bells because it contradicted what you had said at the start of the night.

    That's why I danced a bit with Bugs on the subject and unfortunately that may have given him a bit of validation to his suspicions of you.
  20.  
    EW's vote for angel came last, it came with the most careful consideration, and it came with more of a willingness to sound out Bugs than the others. Bugs has been fond of Irish this game who absolutely refused to vote for someone who has turned out to be innocent.

    We're on a draw...if we hit our card, I think we win.

    Laters.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 14th 2006
     
    OK, might changing my mind ... with Bugs' propensity to protect others ....

    If I'm mafia I might hit Bugs
  21.  
    If they end the game with a clean kill on Bugs, it would be some kind of perfect ending to the whole doctor fiasco.