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  1.  
    Suited plays the game differently than most. Maybe because she is a woman. I think she has a good idea with the Pilchard vote. Given that the wolves wanted him dead, you would think that there had to be at least one wolf vote in there for him. I don't think they would make the first vote -- they'd like to vote third or forth, maybe second. I haven't looked it up, but I bet there was at least one wolf vote from 2-4.
  2.  
    Spoonie, bb88, suitedpair are 2-4. Fatshaft is 5.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2006
     
    If memory serves, TP was first, and Evv was on him as well....but I guess what you're saying is the bad guys are likelier to vote for someone in the 2-5 range, particularly 3-4 to get a bandwagon effect going?

    Let's say for argument's sake that i'm semi convinced that Spoonie and SP are innocents (and especially given SP is the first in the thread to bring the pilchard lynching back up)

    that leaves bb88 who I've been torn about all game and fatshaft who is very much on my bad guy list....

    Of course, just because the wolves obviously wanted pilch dead is no reason to think the mafia wouldn't have wanted him dead too, though I do see where you're coming from.

    I guess this makes the current best-guess list-o-bad:

    Fatshaft
    Nutjob (it's going to take a LOT to persuade me I'm wrong here)
    Evv
    Suited_Jock (Public enemy #1)
    bb88
    Pizza

    MXrider's fallen off....I'm doubting my Evv read as well, primarily because he seems to be behaving comparably to game 6. (Though i've not checked this out thoroughly) + there's no longer an apparent effort to fit in).

    For keeping track's sake...San's good guy list:

    Certs:

    DBF
    Dreamchaser
    Tall Paul
    Wynton

    Probables:

    Dire
    Irishiain
    Spoonie (though I have a very open mind with spoonie)
    Tanya Peck
    TRK
    SuitedPair
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2006
     
    hmmmm, wynton provides a good summary of bb88...I think he's missed some points though.

    First he's anti lynching the good players, but by the end of teh day he's voting for argualbe the best player in the game.

    "Strongly disagrees with lynching Dire, since that would be random and would provide no info"...if evil, bb88 would have preferred him to die of natural causes at this point.

    "SuitedJock has struck me as more innocent than most throughout his posts. " - It bother me how little SJ is getting suspected int eh main thread.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2006
     
    The way this is going, Evv is going to be lynched.

    If Evv was mafia, this wouldn't be going down this easily...right now I bet that Evv is innocent. Find out in 45 minutes I guess.

    Let's keep track...

    p.85 TRK makes the 3rd vote for Evv because he's radar dodging.

    P,86 pizza (himself udner pressure) then makes it 4

    p87 Krazy has a complete change of heart on fatshaft (whom she had voted for on p85) and now joins the evv bandwagon....5 votes.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2006
     
    I missed MX, he was in fact #5, Krazy was #6...

    Pizza, Krazy and MX all practically voted at the same time....pizza spotted TRK's post before casting his own vote but had written the post beforehand...make of that what you will (talking to myself in the future :D )
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2006
     
    Fatshaft makes it 7 without giving any kind fo reason beyond "his prime candidates aren't getting lynched" - tone of the rest of post seemed innocent.

    Bugs changes his vote from Evv to Pizza - i'm inclined to think this makes bugs innocent. (again, though, this is something I did in game 5 to "seem" innocent - though i never did it this close to the deadline).
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2006
     
    Meh - I had a comment, but I had been logged out...

    Anyways... you mentioned Spoonie a while back - I thought he was guilty when he was the doc in game 3... maybe just his style but I might always suspect him... (Sorry Spoonie)

    I haven't read the game thread (much) but if bugs is playing almost exactly the same sstyle as before, I would move him towards the guilty column this time round...
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2006
     
    If I might be taking over from Tanya, I probably shouldn't be here, should i?

    Or is that not in the plan, nside?
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2006 edited
     
    Looks like pizza will be joining us momentarily...

    FWIW Pizza, without knowing the results - I think the innocents made a good choice. (as you'll probably gather if you ever read this).

    f bugs is playing almost exactly the same sstyle as before, I would move him towards the guilty column this time round...

    His style is that he has no style. He does whatever, whenever, however...

    I'd place a bet that bugs is one of tonight's deaths though.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2006
     
    Hah -Pizza was a warewolf - guess I'm not as completely mad as I thought.

    Big question for me is - was SJ one of his partners in crime?
  3.  
    I thought of that today Cyb. I'm reluctant to let you join the game in progress now that you've read this thread.
  4.  
    People always suspect evv and spoonie. I find that interesting. Why do you think that is?
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2006
     
    I think Evv has somehow gotten himself a reputation as being very good at this game when he has never really done anything to deserve it - in game 2 he was one of the mafia's early targets after he made (IIRC) 4 very good clearly thought out posts...

    As such he stuck with me as being a strong player, which is why I wanted him gone in game 5.

    In reality, he's not quite as strong as he was given credit for in those mafia threads, and so people are suspect of him when he doesn't pull a rabbit out of his hat every post...so to speak. This is probably especially so when his posts just seem to be "blending in", because there's a feeling he should be doing more.

    Spoonie - the way he puts things makes it very difficult to know whether he's coming or going - probably makes him an easy target for mafia to pt down small hints of suspicion and let the bandwagon build.
  5.  
    I'll give you a little preview. The wolves are going to hit Bugs tonight and he was mafia. Tip of the glass to Cyb for a good spot on Bugs and to San for a good read on Pizza.

    Once a bad guy is identified, you have a golden opportunity to re-evaluate everything. I do two things:
    1) Re-read everything the dead guy posted looking for clues. Now that you know that Pizza was wolf, the pilchard hit can be read differently. The other wolves were either especially protective of Pizza or not very concerned that the pichard hit would point back to Pizza. Does that change your list?
    2) search for "pizza" and find everything everyone else said about him. People who pushed a vote for him as the first voter or as a momentum swinger are almost certainly not wolves. People who made strong moves in a different direction are more likely to be wolves. Look for any connections you can find and add them to the innocent or guilty columns.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2006
     
    heh....i'm looking forward to people's reactions on bugs.

    "Dreamchaser votes BugsBunny "

    that means nothing to me. i think.

    [/commence research...this may take a long time :)
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeJun 23rd 2006
     
    I'm impressed by my read on bugs :D

    If Tanya is leaving now, that's ahead of schedule, so I wouldn't have been able to take over anyway.

    I can see fatshaft's point about replacements, but at the same time I think a little calm and realism is required. We are rattling through games (does it say anything about the minds of poker players?) and you can't always expect that many people all to be free every day for a whole week. OK so perhaps she shouldn't have signed up knowing she would leave mid-game, but worse things could happen.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    Greetings to all my fellow ghosts :)

    We can expect the population to be increasing here shortly, I think.
    Cyb, why did you say "If he's playing the same way as last game I'd expect him to be mafia this time around"? And I actually wasn't playing it exactly the same, although it may well appear so from the outside.

    FWIW if my former underlings follow orders this game should be pretty much in the bag within 3 nights - if my read was correct.

    I also think I've spotted the seer, which could be important if my read is wrong. I also think I should have overruled my underlings on last nights hit since I had a pretty good feeling that krazy was innocent, and she wouldn't really benefit us in any other way. I really wanted to take out Dreamchaser. It would have been more beneficial to take him out the previous night (although Ogre was the better target), but may still have been good last night. Now they should just leave him alone, although setting him up for a lynch would be ok.

    I also knew I was getting hit last night. And not because they thought I was mafia. The absolute nail in my coffin was the Pizza lynching, but I think I would have been gone last night no matter what, unless they had picked up on the seer.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    I think the current slate of people up for lynching is absolutely great - although if I were an innocent I wouldn't be too happy with it.

    <b>People always suspect evv and spoonie. I find that interesting. Why do you think that is?</b>

    I wish we had suspected spoonie more last game. :) evv has the same problem as Irish had/has. He doesn't post very much and gives off the appearance he's just trying to escape notice. People tend to find that suspicious.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    Welcome to ITHell bugs (ITHeaven's just the sign on the door)...

    In the whole game there was one post I picked up that you were suspicious - which is the main reason you didn't feature in my good guy list...was on the first day where you said your 3 top candidates were Pizza, TP & Pilchard.

    I think you got quite lucky no-one picked up on that in the game thread.

    I've not done my "homework" yet nside ;) But I still think S_J's a bad egg - maybe mafia?...On the other hand, I know it's important to keep an open mind.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    Griff is so obviously not wolf at this point. His vote for pizza was the tipping point, until then it was possible that the vote could have swung in a different direction.

    Nside - question. If 1 wolf remains and he's targeted at night does he still get a kill?
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    I don't know how much to say, since I have some inside knowledge. And if I give too much away I might spoil it for those still following
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    My first day lists, especially that early in day 1, should always be taken with a very large grain of salt - no matter what role I play. They're as likely to be fishing expeditions as they are to be a real list.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    I will say that I think that the seer could well be Dire. That's the read I left with my cohorts.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    Right.....just started some pizza investigating (Incidentally, surely "pizza" should ahve been ont he italian side of the bad guys)...


    Anyway it didn't take me too long to get sidetracked into a mcfoldem investigation.... shortly after the Pilchard lynch, Mcfoldem said something along the lines of "It would be easy to link this to Pizza....too easy, taht's what the warewolves would want us to think".

    Some of my other notes on him (only those on the -ve side) -

    Defending himself on lowish volume: ‚??I always seem to have a slow start.‚?Ě. BS BS BS game 5 he was very active at the start.

    Didn‚??t want to lynch dire day 2- happy for him to die of natural causes?

    Possible cover-up not to fully understand seer/detective roels

    Day 2 investigations were patchy, mainly cut-n-paste jobs with no real opinion given.

    Day 3 ‚?? suggests DC is actually a warewolf...Possibly trying to get the possible seer lynched as tehir worried they can't take him out at night?
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    How much do you want me to reveal, and how much do you want me to keep hidden? Some of the stuff you say is actually very interesting from my perspective - but to fully understand that perspective I'd have to spill a few things
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    I think I'd like to keep "playing" the game at the moment, simply to get some practice in - I've still not had any experience playing as a regular innocent.

    So I guess I'd like you to keep your subsidiaries hidden from me for a day or 2, though if you'd like to shar esome mafia logic that would be great - what was the deal with the krazy hit, for example? [i'm guessing the Ogre hit was because of his "What do I ahve to do to become special" line]
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    Krazy was actually about my 3rd choice, and the more I think about it the more I wish I had overriden the one objection to who I really wanted. There were actually 2 I would have been happy with, 1 as a possible wolf the other more for game purposes, with an extreme outside chance at being wolf.

    Krazy went down because of slight suspicions that she might be a wolf primarily. Plus that was a hit that would almost certainly not leave any backtrail to any of us.
  6.  
    Now that MX has come out as the Seer, does that change your big ideas, Mr. Bunny?
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    Hah! MX has just come out as seer, confirming my read on nutjob.

    I think it's high time i went into smug-mode :cool:
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    BTW I don't think Mx has done this too well, as oday is going to be an out and out landslide now.
  7.  
    By MX coming out and exposing Nutjob, that makes Nutjob about 99% certain to be a wolf. MX is therefore either the third wolf or the true seer. Which is it?

    The angel knew who the correct seer was last night, by the way and deduced it for exactly the correct reason.
  8.  
    Yeah. But he is new and he couldn't get anyone to follow his lead on Nutjob yesterday.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006 edited
     
    lf. MX is therefore either the third wolf or the true seer. Which is it?

    2 of them left....there is no way on earth they take that chance to expose a true seer....especially since the odds of the seer catching one of them over the enxt few days are pretty small.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    he angel knew who the correct seer was last night, by the way and deduced it for exactly the correct reason.

    Well done goes to Tall Paul then. I guess the reason was that Mx was alone in his suspicion of nutjob yesterday which is typical detective behaviour
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    ooo - I like this. The plot just thickened, and I like the way it just developed :)

    FWIW, assuming that my cohorts would have follwed what I suggested, nutjob would have been hit tonight anyway. That opens up other possibilities. I know what I would like to happen tonight. I doubt it will though - that particular combination would be too good to be true.

    I will however state, given the reveal by mxrider, that I was very highly certain that he was actually wolf. Out of the 4 I suspected might be wolf mxrider removes one from the running and nutjob confirms 1. I still think the remaining wolf is in my remaining list - and I think he's done tonight. Although at this point I would prefer that they keep him around a while I don't think they will. I layed out a keep the last wolf if known, or highly suspected, alive as long as possible strategy.

    If not for that strategy then mxrider would have been taken out last night. Glad he wasn't. I knew there was something about him, I misread what.

    And if it's not obvious, I believe mxrider.
  9.  
    That wasn't the correct reason although it is also a pretty good reason. It was based on his reaction to people's speculation that Dreamcatcher was the seer. That is why innocents should NEVER discuss the doctor.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    f not for that strategy then mxrider would have been taken out last night. Glad he wasn't. I knew there was something about him, I misread what.

    As did I...

    that's one thing that I'm going to try and remember for future games....the detective is likely to come off as having suspicious qualities.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    Hmmmm...so let's see:

    Warewolves:
    Pizza
    Nutjob
    Mcfoldem?

    Mafia:
    Bugs
    Suited_Jock ?
    ----line of extreme uncertainty-----
    bb88?
    • CommentAuthornsidestrate
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006 edited
     
    The mafia are in great shape now, but they are clueless as to the third wolf.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    I'll also say that if I was still alive my target tonight would be TRK.
  10.  
    because he is a wolf or because he is a dangerous innocent?
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    "but they are clueless as to the third mafioso."

    Who is they? or should mafioso be wolf?
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    Nutjob had a go at TRK this morning...

    Since he's obviously not mafia either I guess that makes him more or less innocent.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    He's the vigilante - again
  11.  
    I shouldn't say this because it give San a big clue, but the current mafia Don is in my opinion a really good and underrated player. He has an excellent shot at MVP of this game.
  12.  
    Bugs: I corrected my post before your reply and TRK ain't no vigilante.
  13.  
    Tall Paul realized that it would have been better if the MX reveal was timed differently and tried to save the day's discussion, but it is way to late to stop that train.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    I shouldn't say this because it give San a big clue, but the current mafia Don is in my opinion a really good and underrated player. He has an excellent shot at MVP of this game.

    Tells me it's a man for starters...
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 24th 2006
     
    In that case we'll have to let the town do the work for them :)