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    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    God, I gotta go back to bed...

    cheers
  1.  
    bb88 is thinking that if the mob lynches fatshaft, he should kill trk to "disprove" DC's theories. I think that would be a terrible mistake.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    @#$% I just had a long post that I lost. I'm not going to retype it.

    I agree that killing TRK would be a terrible mistake. Especially since TRK is pretty convinced of BB's innocence. Taking out DC would also be a mistake, at the moment. If DC continues to push this then I think BB should "volunteer" a TRK - bb slate tomorrow.

    1) I think that bb can win that matchup.
    2) The fact he's willing to put himself up will go a long way to convincing some people that he's innocent.

    As far as who he should takeout tonight if fatshaft goes down, I'm not sure. Someone who's on the fence about him, but not overly vocal about it.

    Ayone who strongly opposes him or strongly supports him should be left alone, if possible.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    If they take out fatshaft then I'd take out the known innocent - MX.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    MX would be great choice
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    !@#$ twice I've lost a post here. I'll summarize:

    The us comment: I don't see it as a problem. The innocents really should be looking at it as "us" rather than "me", although like tournament chips, the individual me starts to become more valuable in the end game.

    DC: He shows a lot of ptential and has the ability to think outside the box. This is good. Thinking outside the box can also get you in trouble(I know), but it also makes things fun.

    He's gotten lucky to a certain extent with his choices. Like poker this game isn't as easy as it first appears. He's running good at the moment. One thing he may have to learn is to step back and throw out whatever your current conceptions are, even if doing so makes you look like an idiot, and start from scratch. Do not go looking for evidence to support your hypotheses, because if you do that you will find it (no matter what your hypotheses is). This is hard for almsot anyone to do though, and it's a trap we all fall into at least some of the time.

    One thing he is getting right is trusting his instincts, something I need to do more of - both in this game and poker. But instincts aren't always enough.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    If we count Wynton as voting for fatshaft it looks like the current vote is 6/4 fatshaft. I think bb will survive unscathed today at least, and given previous history I think they'll focus on someone else tomorrow.

    Hmm - I wonder if a DC kill tonight may not just work. It could be spun as trying to create suspicion of bb/trk, and bb won't even have to start that line. I'm sure someone else would mention that possibility, and somebody else would second it.
  2.  
    If the vote for fatshaft holds and they can get trk killed before bb, they have a good shot. McFoldem casting the vote to take the tally from 4-4 to 5-4 and "saving" bb could come back to haunt him. I think that was a mistake.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    McFoldem - I don't think so. Fatshaft will come out as a bad guy. Mx (the only known innocent) voted for him. It'll be fine, I think. If Fatshaft was innocent it would be a different story.,

    The more I think about it the more I like the idea of a TRK/bb slate - as long as bb is the one to propose it. That's if he starts getting pressure again he can pop up with that suggestion. But I don't know if he would think of it.

    Actually if BB were to say something like the following:

    Fine - you all think that TRK and myself are mafia. I propose that you put both of us up against each other today beacuse I've had enough of this. And furthermore I vote to lynch myself. After I'm gone and you see I'm innocent you can figure out what to do next etc.

    No mafia has yet voted for themselves, ever. That act will work once, the first time it's pulled - but will probably be dead after that. Actually it may be dead anyway after this game since I posted it here. But if bb were to try and pull it here I'd give it an extremely high probability of working.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     

    No mafia has yet voted for themselves, ever.


    Darvon in game 1 iirc...but that certainly didn't do him any good so yes it's a good strategy.

    I sitll think, however, mcfoldem would ahve been better served voting for bb...expecially since they don't know fatshaft is the last warewolf.

    Further, losing the last warewolf at this stage of the game is, IMHO, bad for the mafia, as it will extend the amount of time before the end game is reached.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006 edited
     
    Let's put that another way -

    would the mafia be better off with 2 members, 1 of whom is currently under hefy suspicion from a few innocents, and getting 1 kill a night OR with 1 member who is likely to avoid suspicion for a while, and getting 2 kills a night?
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    what's more, if mcfoldem is seen to have cast the deciding vote on a mafia member, and fatshaft is eventually exposed as warewolf - who's really going to think he's mafia?
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    I agree, but given a choice between losing the last wolf and losing 50% of your remaing team I choose the wolf.

    And they may not know he's the wolf - but he should be on their possibles list, and that list shouldn't be very long right now. Like I said earlier I would have it at 3. If I include TP as an extreme long shot, which would mean the wolves got tricky with votes for him early, it would be 4.

    If they get through today and tomorrow without raising further suspicion I think they'll be fine. After tomorrow night the score would be 9/2, but they're in better shape then they would be in a normal game that started with those numbers, because at least 1 is currently buried very deep and suspicion is rampant among the remaining townspeople. They have to keep feeding that suspicion.

    I'm still not sure who they should kill tonight though. I can give you pros and cons on a few people. TRK would be the biggest mistake if they go that route. Although they might even be able to spin that one in their favor. "TRK was killed to cast suspicion on bb".
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    If you're left with 1 member + a wolf you run the risk that the wolf hits you at night. I'd rather have no wolf.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    If you want to really run the lay cover for McFoldem card and really make it stick then get Fatshaft today, hit DC tonight, and have McFoldem open the voting on bb tomorrow.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    Heh, I quite like that, actually. Except...

    have McFoldem open the voting on bb tomorrow.

    I'd have him be 2nd or 3rd to make it look like he's starting the bandwagon...though i'm not sure if the innocents left are sophisticated enough at the game to spot the significance.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    1 more vote for fatshaft and I think it's in the bag
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    BTW I think there is a problem going to rear its head for the mafia tomorrow once the last of the warewolves is gone...

    TP (under hefty suspicion by some players) can now come out as angel, since he'll no longer have any special purpose. No one will be able to dispute his claim, so he'll become a known innocent in the town.

    Not a massive problem but just thought i'd mention it.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    He'd be better off opening the vote I think, but second or third would also work. Some of them are sophisticated enough.

    By opening the vote (and possibly proposing the bb/trk slate since DC got killed) he actually gives bb a chance at survival. And as long as he did it right he wouldn't be hurt even if they lynch TRK and find him innocent. It would be a win/win.

    If TRK is lynched and found innocent then bb's status goes up and McFoldem simply got taken in by the evil mafia plot. If bb gets lynched then McFoldem looks golden and should easily make it to the end game.

    If bb survives, but gets lynched before McFoldem then McFoldem still looks good, having opened that vote.

    If McFoldem gets lynched before bb then bb looks good since the mafia would never agree to have one of their own open a lynch vote against the other with only 2 of them left.

    Heh - the more I look at this the more I like it. NSIDE - any chance my ghost can appear to them in a dream :D
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    Actually a better plan for TP would be to wait until a day when the town looked like lynching him (since he's quite heavily suspected the mafia won't kill him at night)....when that day comes, he then makes the claim and becomes a known innocent.

    Looks like fatshaft is a gonner.

    There's another advantage to mcfoldem proposing a slate of bb and TRK after a DC kill...if bb goes then TRK is virtually guaranteed to go the day afterwards.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    Yes, TRK would probably go in a landslide, meaning almost no discussion = no clues for future votes.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    Very cunning bugs...I'm starting to look forward to a game where you and I are actually on the same side.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    That would be interesting, to say the least :) I am taking a break after this one though. And I do want to revise my strategy, I'm just not completely sure how yet.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    It's 7-4 fatshaft - I think the lone wolf is about to be no more
  3.  
    The mafia have NO CLUE that fatshaft is a wolf. He is no longer on their short list. Only in the last minute have they even started to talk about him again.

    MX is playing great. He completely nailed what amounts to bullet-proof evidence that TRK is no wolf. Of course, he could still be mafia.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    I nailed TRK as not wolf just based on the pizza vote
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    I'd hate to see their current shortlist if Fatshaft isn't on it. If it contains more than 2 people I don't see any way fatshaft couldn't be on it.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    If You were fatshaft now, what would you do?

    options

    1. do nothing. die.
    2. defend yourself. probably die.
    3. declare angel...get in a race with TP...dead man walking.
    4. Declare warewolf...possibly persuade the village that you could act as their every night vigilante - bit crazy but heck at least you're alive.
    5. Declare a secret role that Nside didn't announce was in the game...heh that would be good for a laugh....think I'd do this one :-D
    6...? I'm out i think.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    Fatshaft's problem is that I think he honestly has a RL problem that will keep him from showing before deadline
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    I might well declare angel. It might get me 1 night, since mx is sure to investigate tonight.

    The secret role could be fun :) That would be just before the final curtain I think.

    do nothing is so boring. If I got lynched I know I wouldn't go quietly - although what I would do depends on how much of a done deal it is. I'd probably start at 2 and then escalate if 2 didn't work.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    That makes 8 - I think it's over I don't see any way enough votes swing in the other direction.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006 edited
     
    I think Fatshaft played a good game, but a little too over the top. It's hard to play the game correctly the way he was trying to play it. You have to walk a very fine line.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006 edited
     
    Wynton wrote:

    Perhaps we should also voice opinions about whom our seer should investigate?


    heh
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    ah - Fatshaft has made an appearance after all :) This could still get interesting
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    I laughed when I saw that as well. :)
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    He's putting together some good last throw of the dice arguments at the minute...shame there don't seem to be enough people about to change things.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    I'd love for someone to come up with the line:

    "hmmmm, mafia don't usually defend themselves this strongly....I vote to lynch bb88" to make this interesting.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    I would be kicking and screaming even while they were putting the rope around my neck.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    With MX switching he may yet pull this out - although I don't think there's enough time
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    fatshaft - 5
    bb88 - 4
    TP - 2

    Slighlty more interesting now ....15 minutes or so to go.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    I would laugh heartily if they ended up lynching an innocent today...

    Wyntonw ants TP gone
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    Whew - Fatshaft almost pulled that out of the fire
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    Ah well, at least fatshaft gave it a bloody good go.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    Nside - now that the warewolves have lost, any chance of us getting access to the lair?
  4.  
    I have to think about that. Live players can't see it, but I think it is OK for you guys.
  5.  
    They gotta take out MX now, right? I'm not sure TRK would be a terrible choice either.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    NSIDE - couldn't the seer still have investigated the angel to confirm his status 100%?
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006 edited
     
    <i>hey gotta take out MX now, right? I'm not sure TRK would be a terrible choice either.</i>

    MX is the logical choice. I still like my scenario above, but they'll never do something like that. TRK may just get lynched tomorrow anyways, I don't know if he's such a good choice.
    • CommentAuthorsan
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    I suspect that's nside dropping us a little hint about who's about to get mafiasized
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeJun 26th 2006
     
    I suspect that they're debating between those 2.