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    • CommentAuthornsidestrate
    • CommentTimeAug 25th 2006 edited
    Ask and ye shall receive.
    The innocents look like they are in some serious trouble again. I've seen a couple of clues from mafia players and a couple of near-certain innocents. Everyone is clearly getting much better at this.
    Thank you, sir.

    I've got two I'm willing to peg as mafia and am having trouble finding two more round pegs to fit into those round holes.
    Am going to have to run in a few minutes and will be back with more detailed stuff tonight but will throw some preliminaries down.
    I feel badly for TRK. He is one of my faves and I hate that his golden opportunity ended this way.

    Geez, I thought that Dire was one heck of a timid detective (with a hit on TRK) so I was shocked to read this morning's results.
    Two I'd be willing to cast lynch votes for right now are Nutjob and Tall Paul. fatshaft may be a third. The fact that he couldn't be reached may explain why Day One got off to such a late start and Irish fits into the last round hole with the least resistance but to be honest he strikes me as innocent, just not glaringly so.

    Am fairly uncomfortable with San at times and exasperated with Dire. But as San has bent over backwards to vouch for Dire 5 times, I'm pegging these two as the masons. (with slight possibility of San being instead the Doc)

    Alternate mafia would be the same two (San/Dire) or those two peas in a pod - Bugs and bb88, for whom I've counted six links so far !

    Will be back later tonight to flesh out the above and to work through the likely innocents, with reasons. And to railbird the latest developments.
    Interesting stuff. I usually start out these threads trying to do a clinic on good mafia play, but then once a lot of people show up, it breaks down.

    I think Nutjob, Dire and San would be very interesting people to think about in terms on the first 30 hours or so. I think all three left some clues about their role.

    I also feel bad for TRK. He had sought a good role for so long and played so well as the innocent that it is unfortunate that he got cheated of his chance to be the main guy this time.
    I've read a couple of good whodunnits this summer: John Le Carre's Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (a difficult read but one that I richly recommend to all !) and Agatha Christie's The Murder of Roger Ackroyd - made me smile all the way through and is sort of a precursor to Columbo.

    But nothing beats being immersed in a good game of ITH Mafia, even if you happen to find yourself on the sidelines !

    Let's start off with Nutjob....
    1. The hit on Pizza. The instant I saw that I was offed, I figured that Nutjob was in the den. Twice he has seen me lock on to mafia early. (his partner Elmo on Day 2 on Game 4 and Fumseck on Day 3 of Game 6). And in Game 7 I told him in the lair that he wasn't matching his Game 6 form. So he knows that I have the potential to get a read on him.

    2. His curious late arrival. I was really watching to see what kind of Nut would be showing up at 2:30 AM EDT on Day One. Hmmm, a no show. Very suspicious. And a handful have commented about it in the game thread. If I was still in the game, it would have only served to strengthen my resolve to put questions about his identity to rest (read: lynch or request investigation) quickly.

    3. His form. In Game 4 he was The Merry Listmaker who posted frequently but quietly and avoided making waves. In Game 6 he was The Shark's Attack Dog. Turned up the aggression quite noticeably but there was a big difference in the aggression he showed in Game 6 vs that from Game 7. In 6, he attacked shady types who deserved to be attacked and it was always with the "first-in vigorish" that Dan Harrington speaks of in his HOH series. They had to respond to Nutjob's aggression and they usually did so badly.

    In Game 7 he was aggressive to those who had, from a position of strength, raised doubts about Nut. The questioners had the first-in vigorish and Nut tried to re-raise them and chase them away with bluster. But he didn't have the cards that time and they weren't folding.

    Here in Game 8 he's also flashing the bluster toward those who were first to speak with their own issues about Nut. He's specifically tried to "re-raise" Bugs and bb88 but his objections concerning them are quite weak. (This factor alone has figured into my estimation of Bugs and bb88 as being probable innocents)

    These three factors came together in my mind on about page 11 or so in the game thread and I figured I was about 70% on Nut being mobbed up.

    (Disclosure: During Night Two, unsolicited (but highly appreciated !) info was volunteered to me that allowed me to ratchet that percentage from 70 to 100%. That's all I know though and will be happy to edit this little nugget out, before we have other guests arrive. We'll see how the game flows.)
    You seem to be hinting that San and Dire would be good trees to be barking in an upward direction at but let me throw in a little about Tall Paul.

    In Game 7 I remarked that McFoldem was tracking the Game 6 Spoonie, but it was sorta thrown in there as an afterthought. Starting in Game 8, I vowed to move such considerations to the front burner and always have a little private contest going to see who is most closely tracking the Game 6 Spoonie and the Game 7 McFoldem. While BigRedChef has lost his position amongst the top 3 (heh), Tall Paul hasn‚??t. (Update: love MXRider‚??s comments on looking for the McFoldem imitator on pg 21 !)

    His style is markedly different from anything he has ever displayed before. In Game 2 he was a happy-go-lucky mafioso yarn spinner (but very active). In Games 5 and 7, he was edgy and aggressive as an innocent. He made the hair on the back of my neck stand up and I was convinced he was mafia in both (I was just an observer in Game 5). The sedate Spoonie of Game 6 was a dramatic change from his edgier previous self and it was a harbinger of ill. The smooth McFoldem of Game 7 was a drastic change from the sometimes-stumbling persona we had seen in the past and it meant he was up to no good. What are the implications of this Tall Paul that we‚??re seeing so little of here ?

    Oh. A bride on board now and a fresh 31K in the coffers. Valid distractions, I suppose. Just as valid as all those papers (mafioso) Elmo had to grade in Game 4.

    (I will say this about TP. He may genuinely be distracted by the poker. A fresh 31K is awesome and he may be in top poker form right now and if so, he'd be crazy not to milk it. It would have been easy to bypass Game 8 and focus on the poker but maybe he signed up to help keep the ITH Mafia fires burning brightly by making sure there was one more warm body in the mix. If that is the case, I thank him very much)
    I don‚??t know if this Dire maneuver was something that was planned in the lair or if he was simply overreacting to a ‚??tell‚?Ě he had spotted but it is a potential mafia ploy that could be brilliant in terms of its potential effects and is something I might consider pulling if I ever play mafia at another website.

    Personally I interpreted it as a detective signaling that he had scored a possible hit. It wouldn‚??t have taken much coaxing for me to have cast a vote for TRK and I wouldn‚??t have required Dire to go ahead and ‚??reveal‚?Ě; he was already making the right kinds of noises. A bandwagon could have ensued. One-for-one is a heavy sacrifice for the mafia to make but it would be a kamikaze way of doing an end run around potential doctor protection if that was deemed strategically necessary.

    By Dire not going ahead and ‚??outing himself‚?Ě but still making the right noises, he could stand a good chance of decoying the doctor away from protecting a top name at night.

    In lefthanded fashion, a mafioso Dire could win innocent credentials he‚??d never have before by throwing the changeup of hitting (and thereby revealing his ‚??mistake‚?Ě) the very same target he had accused.

    Definitely worth a try at another website as a newbie !
    Even in his hilarious drunk post on pg 19, San is still blatantly vouching for Dire. Why be so obvious about it ?

    I PM‚??d TRK today with my condolences. He does not know I‚??ve pegged San and Dire as the masons. In his reply he up and volunteered to me that HE feels that San and Dire are the very same. Hoo-hah !

    And in the early stages of Day One before Dire makes his first appearance, San on 2 or 3 occasions asks another player if there was anybody they would specifically not want to lynch. If I was still in the game I would have kiddingly asked him if he had gone mason hunting.

    What the heck is this boy up to ?

    It has often been said in these ITH mafia games that ‚??let‚??s lynch someone who will provide information about another player‚?Ě.

    For better or for worse, San has created a very strong link between himself and Dire. One that the town might feel compelled to unlock with a lynch someday. Or if there are two other ‚??real‚?Ě masons in the house, they might just throw an ‚??outing party‚?Ě.
    Between the time the PMs were sent and the time the Night One actions were disclosed, the thread remained open and there were 5 players who posted comments: Bugs, KT, Pizza, San and TRK. I changed gears and was going to have my opening theme revolve around the question of whether all five of these were innocent.

    No set start time was given and mafia will have no edginess about whether they will be alive at the start of Day One. The ones who keep checking the thread, though, are those likely to have a little anxiety about said subject. KT, San and TRK have all bought it on Night One in the past. Bugs and I would have a reasonable expectation of meeting the same fate. We find the thread is mysteriously open, and so dang anxious for the game to start, can‚??t resist firing a pre-game salvo.

    The game got off to a late start, presumably because a special or a mafia wasn‚??t available to send a PM. All five of these pregame posters showed that they were on hand and capable of sending a PM. Perhaps one of them could have been a mafioso killing some time whilst waiting for a fellow baddie to join the den but it doesn‚??t seem so likely.

    I was going to be bold and narrow my mafia universe from 15 potential names to 11 right at the get go. I‚??m a bit surprised no one else addressed this possibility.
    Here are four I feel who are likely to be innocent:

    I have loved MX Rider every step of the way. He seems to be one who is out there digging for the truth. He had an awesome exchange with TRK on pg 5. MX is searching for those innocents who might be a threat to the mafia and TRK turns it around and queries about those mafia who might be a threat to the innocents. They call each other on possible ulterior motives and MX says:

    ‚??Just trying to see if you would be getting some FPS early with some reverse psychology. The 3 players you listed as threats to innocents are exactly that IF they are Mafia, which I do not know, but if you were Mafia, you would know if they were innocents or not and use that to your advantage.‚?Ě

    That type of quick, on-the-fly thinking is a sign of innocence.

    Angel-fish is remaining true to her less-than-active, careful and cautious style. In regards to whether Dire was a possible detective or fatshaft was AWOL because he was a special laying low for a good reason, she has voiced things that others may not have had the courage to and was not afraid to come off as possibly looking indiscreet.

    Cybrarian is definitely acting as an independent free-thinking agent and not part of a four person team. He‚??s a tight rock and is not going to throw a lynch vote out there carelessly ‚?? he‚??s going to wait for something that approaches the nuts. So when Dire throws out his Tequila post and Cybrarian quickly responds that he has a sudden strong urge to lynch Dire, that moment was so genuine and unpremeditated that I put an innocent check mark next to Cyb‚??s name and I doubt I‚??ll look back. (However at some point I will require him to do more than just react but to show some initiative of his own from time to time)

    Next to MX, Bugs is my other top innocent. I warmed up to him immediately with his first post and said to myself that this is the man I want in charge or avenging my death. I have remained comfortable with him at every step of the way. Well, except for when he started having doubts about the Nutjob/Dire/bb88 slate when Dire‚??s name was replaced with San and then later goes off and votes for the Whale. My tell on him will be whether or not he closes the Day 2 voting with a push for Nutjob. His palm reading cartoon gives me hope.
    I didn‚??t know whether to be dismayed or amused when the original Nutjob/Dire/bb88 slate broke down. It was MX Rider who reminded everyone that the reason that slate was proposed in the first place was because it was the one chosen by our departed detective.

    The town was in hopes that TRK left a smoking gun for us but there was enough indecisiveness in TRK‚??s wordings that the town harbored some doubts.

    It doesn‚??t matter. TRK was the choice of the mafia on Night Two. They may well have been detective hunting so there is value in exploring his slate.

    - - - - - - - -

    That is probably the end of the monologue (please don‚??t cry ‚??Yippee‚?Ě too loudly !).

    Thanks to Nside and everyone for indulging me. I feel like I sorta did get to play after all now.

    But be forewarned that I‚??ll still have sporadic comments regarding ongoing developments.
    I'll award an A on the Nutjob analysis and an A+ on the five probable innocents. I also agree that TRK isn't that likely to have found a mafia player. If he did, he'd probably leave a better trail.
    I'm here! I don't know what to read first - all Pizza's comments or the rest of the main thread!

    I'm really annoyed at whoever it was that suggested I might be the detective. Was it AF? It's a really stupid thing to do as an innocent - speculating on the identity of the most valuable character. Of course AF could be mafia in which case I would have been pushing hard for a lynch on day 2.

    The reason I chose my slate of Nutjob/Dire/bb88 was fairly simple. Nutjob had shown up very late (very unusual for such a heavy poster). Dire had used a poor reason for wanting to lynch me. bb88 posting's remind me so much of his early posts in the mega-game in which he did very very well.

    Of course, I didn't realise the implications of San's insistence that Dire was innocent until too late.

    I may well have survived the second night. When I went to bed (about 3.5 hours before the deadline) I think BigRedChef only had one vote. At the time I wondered whether I should reveal myself, save him from the lynch and save myself from the mafia hit. I realise BRC would have almost certainly been hit that night. I took a risk and it didn't payoff. Had I been awake for the deadline things might have been very different...
    BRC looks like he is en route. For those who didn't get it from TRK's comments, he investigated BRC on night one.

    TRK is also correct that speculation about who is the detective or the doctor is horrible for the innocents. The same applies to dicussion of detective strategy before the detective is out.
    Nutjob coming out as the doctor is silly. If he *is* the doctor it is terrible, because it allows him to live one night and one night only. If he isn't the doctor, he has declared himself to be mafia and only bought one night of life for himself.
    Some morning thoughts‚?¶OK, there could be another explanation for Tall Paul‚??s change of pace. He may be a special and is trying to convince the mafia that his enthusiasm is low and therefore his threat-level is too. But heck, they will be just as suspicious of it as I am.

    Just as the San-Dire link provides a 2 for 1 return for your money so too would the Bugs ‚??bb88 link. Night hits, day lynches and game flow will help steer us as to which direction we need to go.

    The word ‚??quality‚?Ě (as opposed to quantity of posts) makes its first appearance in ITH Mafia in the early game instructions and this word shows up in both Bugs‚?? and bb‚??s instructions.

    Both were of the first impression that the Pizza hit pointed to Nutjob.

    Both cast early votes for fatshaft.

    Both came to the impression that TRK was ‚??off‚?Ě (and as a special, that may have been natural) and bb apparently was of a mind to cast a vote for TRK at the same time as Bugs.

    Both have been hounded by Nutjob.

    Update: both have cast Day Two votes for The Whale

    It is within the realm of possibility that the reason they appear to be on the same page is because they are den mates.

    A lynch (or night hit) of one would shed light upon the other. [Update: It‚??s possible that bb88 has chosen to link himself with Bugs and mirror him, especially now that Det is gone and Doc may go back to protecting Bugs. Permutations, permutations‚?¶]

    If Nutjob, Bugs & bb88 are in the den together, the pregame strategy might have been this‚?¶

    ‚??Too high of a probability that San will be protected so lets hit Pizza, who has proven to be dangerous in the past. Unfortunately that will point to Nut but we‚??ll sacrifice Nut and that will have an added benefit of making us look good as we‚??re instrumental in bringing Nut to justice.‚?Ě

    But for some reason they‚??ve surveyed things in the den and come to the conclusion they don‚??t need to sacrifice one of their own so out goes The Whale.

    Just speculation.

    If Nutjob is my tell, than Bugs is looking worse this morning and San is looking much better.

    And krazytxan is starting to bother me too. She votes Whale to take Nutjob out of a temporary lead and on pg 20 she proposes changing the Nutjob/Dire/bb88 slate entirely. Could be coincidence but her actions have consistently taken pressure off Nut.
    Wow...NJ as Doc..need to catch up quickly
    A problem with the Bugs-bb88 link though is that Nut, Bugs, and bb88 (and krazy whom I've just expressed misgivings about) are all lined up on The Whale with their votes here on Day 2. I can't imagine a true mafia allowing that to happen.

    Time to think afresh.

    - - - - - -

    If Nut had just been patient, someone might have pulled him out of the fire. A silver lining is that the Day 3 vote might be a bandwagon in which the mafia are not put under pressure.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006

    Nside you bastard!!!!!!!!!!
    That was evil, I admit.

    The worst thing is that it wasn't really a tie. I made a mistake and did the RNG anyhow. Fortunately, I killed the right person anyhow.
    Your ploy actually did what it was intended to do. I think the identity of the doctor is now obvious. That was a clear mistake on MX's part, because you would have been exposed the next day anyhow.
    Good afternoon, Mr. Pesci.
    "That was a clear mistake on MX's part, because you would have been exposed the next day anyhow."

    Ouch. The dogma is that time pressure hurts the mafia, but I guess it is a peril to anyone with hidden information.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006
    HEHEHEHE, that's all we wanted, adios Moto Man!

    Hey Pizza!

    Again, sorry for the early kill. It wasn't my idea, but I didn't really fight for you...
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006
    That was evil, I admit.

    Evil funny, that is!

    : - 0
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006
    Unlike last game, I WILL NOT REVEAL anything in here...
    Good. Plenty of puzzle left to solve.

    Unfortunately I have spilled my notes on How To Read Nutjob 101
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006
    Heh, looks like we got extremely lucky with you TRK.....
    Were you detective hunting ?
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006
    Pretty good read.

    The problem with Nut werewolf in 7 and Nut mafia in 8 was my late arrivals.

    In 7, I still blame work and in 8 I did it to myself. I really, really thought about not posting at all on the first day....

    Also, the TRK thing put me under fire, so "re-raising" was my only play...

    I don't want to give anything away, but I was pretty sacrificial - with TRK out, we wanted the doc, and unless Nside is pulling another one, we got him.

    so I'm happy

    : )
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006
    Yeah, we were detective hunting, I thought, just as some players did, that TRK did investigate me, but my cooked up "defense" of that turned out to be close to accurate.

    He was fishing with my name.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006
    I'll trade a lucky detective hit and a doctor kill for a Nutjob any day.
    As much as I wanted to see you brought to justice, I must admit to a sudden surge of indignation when TRK asked if you had ever been good as an innocent.

    You were kick-a$$ awesome in Game 6.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006
    Thanks Pizza!

    And now like you, I'm hoping to be a true innocent if and when I play again!
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006
    The good news about dying early is that I won't have mafia burnout when this one ends...... with a mafia victory of course
    Objectively, one's game history should be 75% innocent, 25% baddie but you're running 40%-60% on the dark side.

    It looks like our friend fatshaft, though, has been allowed to fight for the Rebel forces this time.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006
    Speaking of percentages, Nside I'm glad TheWhale won that flip, things could have gotten really messy.
    That was a quirky opening line from bb88 that really raised my eyebrows and I'm glad San called him on it.

    "I thought San was the doctor due to his reluctance to switch his vote and put his own hide on the line."

    San already had his vote on Nutjob and it had remained there since the start of the day. If he was the real Doc and suddenly knew Nut was fake, there's no switching that needs to be done.

    It strikes me as strange, sort of like bb88 doth protest too much, like "I wasn't one of those wise guys that snared MX on the see, I thought San was the Doc."
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006
    Pizza, MX should be along shortly ...

    I'm reading everything you write but am not going to respond in any way to keep in line with not ruining it.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006

    MXRider PM'd me and is requestiing admittance if you haven't already recieved a PM from him
    Hot off the presses from your old friend angel-fish:

    "WOOOT! Yes! Death to Nutjob! "

    heh, heh, heh, heh
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeAug 26th 2006
    heh, first thing she said at the convention was something about my alphabetical thing from Game 2!!!!!!!!
    (been browsing through Day 2)

    This is such an interesting quote from Bugs on pg 19. He had expressed satisfaction with the Nutjob/Dire/bb88 slate (and said he found one slightly suspicious name on there). Then Tall Paul replaces Dire's name with San, which bb88 seconds. All of the sudden the Rabbit is unhappy.

    "With a list of nutjob san and bb88 that's 3 good players, and IMHO that's at least 1 too may. We need to spread things a bit moe and get some of the either currently or potentially flying under the radar people in the mix. I have no problem changing the list, just not in the direction it's going. "

    Then Bugs, Tall Paul and bb88 trade exchanges about how Nut/bb88/xx would be just fine. But somehow there's a problem with San being the third. Is that because Bugs was afraid no votes would flow towards San ? Or that he has been cautious not to raise San's ire ?

    Then we wind up going on a Whale hunting expedition. Interesting.
    Maybe angel fishes are like elephants in that they never forget !
    Am gonna have to head out now. If MX shows, just wanted to say you were one of my favorite innocents and I'm sure you will have your eyes peeled for fishhooks in the water next time. GG.

    You had a couple of teaser quotes on pg 20...

    "Boy, looks like my list of three has caused some stirring which was the purpose of it.........I am keeping my eye out on a few specific people that I care not to elaborate on at the moment for fear that it may cause a twist in direction that I am not ready to go down. "

    Then on pg 21 you unveiled your Dreamchaser-like lynch vote on Bugs ! What were you seeing ?

    Right after that vote we get this instant spontaneous reaction from Irishiain...

    "Posting like dreamchaser now, he irritated me so much in the last game that well...... I vote to lynch MXRider. This will change and I may even go crazy and post a list later."

    I'm throwing Irish into the innocent camp, now.

    Finally, check out the list which Bugs provides at the bottom of pg 23 on his reads of the other players in the game. He lists MX Rider as mafia and Nutjob as innocent.