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  1.  
    He was late yesterday too.
  2.  
    But I was later...
    • CommentAuthorPiemaster
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    Hi everyone.

    This game is more interesting without the detective isn't it....
  3.  
    In a real-time game situation, I would not have the benefit of the data that MX has shared with us. However, by now I think my attention would have drifted to Cicerius. He has acted in a less-than-useful manner for the town and his last minute performances on both Days Two and Three are looking a little dodgy. He seems to be a vote magnet; and if he is indeed innocent, it would be nice for the town to be able to turn their energies elsewhere on this most crucial Day Four.

    What would have been the results of a Night Four investigation on Cicerius ?
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    pizzabynight:

    What would have been the results of a Night Four investigation on Cicerius ?


    He would indeed be mafia.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    Hey Pie, welcome!
  4.  
    "This game is more interesting without the detective isn't it...."

    Someone else may be able to give you a more objective answer on that. :smile:

    I can't say that the investigations I would have chosen so far would have had tremendous impact.
  5.  
    Thanks, MX !

    And indeed, GG, Pie !
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    hi pie:cheer:
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    pizzabynight:

    And indeed, GG, Pie !


    I object!:fingersear:
    • CommentAuthorPiemaster
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    I have a horrible feeling that the innocents are going to implode
  6.  
    For curiosity's sake, what was your initial take on San's starting out Day Three with the Hunter claim ?
    • CommentAuthorPiemaster
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    I'm not sure, I think there are arguments for and against. I certainly don't hate it.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    Pie: "I have a horrible feeling that the innocents are going to implode."

    Going to? :neutral:
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    Any chance my brethren go after San given his hunter claim thinking the doc would protect someone else knowing they wouldn't dare go after San?
  7.  
    I should have phrased that to a more basic question of did you believe it when you first read it ?

    Pilchard and Cyb were somewhat adversarial to it. Would you have been an adversary or an ally ?
  8.  
    "Any chance my brethren go after San given his hunter claim thinking the doc would protect someone else knowing they wouldn't dare go after San?"

    The high-roller way to go !!

    Depending upon who that Hunter's bullet hits....
  9.  
    Piemaster:I have a horrible feeling that the innocents are going to implode


    I still think they will win. But it is much closer now.
  10.  
    MXRider:Any chance my brethren go after San given his hunter claim thinking the doc would protect someone else knowing they wouldn't dare go after San?


    There was a chance, but that isn't what they did.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    pizzabynight:Did Buzz post at all today ? (too lazy to check) I trust he will get a PM in. If he is AWOL, perhaps this would be the time for the mob to get fancy and go for that no-hit. (It would have the additional benefit of irritating our Hunter by placing the town in an even-numbered position at the start of the day :wink: )


    regarding the even/odd situation: does this still hold true with a traitor in the midst?
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    nsidestrate:
    MXRider:Any chance my brethren go after San given his hunter claim thinking the doc would protect someone else knowing they wouldn't dare go after San?


    There was a chance, but that isn't what they did.


    Ok, given that this person does not receive protection as I anticipate that San most likely will be protected, is this person a traitor or an ordinary innocent?
  11.  
    I believe so. 3-2 would be preferable to 4-2 since you would have a 40% chance of being right vs 33%. Strange, huh ?
  12.  
    I have a minor dilemma, because I'm not sure Buzz will show in a reasonable time period. I'm fairly confident he would not have protected the target and I'm concerned if I wait overnight it will give the mafia a very large clue as to his identity. I'm thinking about performing the kill without letting him have a protection vote.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    but I think we need to back it up a little because of teh overall voting power of the traitor
  13.  
    MXRider:Ok, given that this person does not receive protection as I anticipate that San most likely will be protected, is this person a traitor or an ordinary innocent?


    Ordinary innocent. They don't seem to know who the traitor is. I think there are clues, but he has played it in an interesting way.
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    nsidestrate:I have a minor dilemma, because I'm not sure Buzz will show in a reasonable time period. I'm fairly confident he would not have protected the target and I'm concerned if I wait overnight it will give the mafia a very large clue as to his identity. I'm thinking about performing the kill without letting him have a protection vote.


    I say go for it!!

    KT
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    nsidestrate:I have a minor dilemma, because I'm not sure Buzz will show in a reasonable time period. I'm fairly confident he would not have protected the target and I'm concerned if I wait overnight it will give the mafia a very large clue as to his identity. I'm thinking about performing the kill without letting him have a protection vote.


    but at the same time, wouldn't that falsely clue them in that buzz wasn't the doc?
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    nsidestrate:
    MXRider:Ok, given that this person does not receive protection as I anticipate that San most likely will be protected, is this person a traitor or an ordinary innocent?


    Ordinary innocent. They don't seem to know who the traitor is. I think there are clues, but he has played it in an interesting way.


    Thank you sir. Given that, I think I know who the traitor is and I would have to agree about how he has played it as I would have potentially gone after him tonight as a hit.
  14.  
    As a townie, I vote to give Buzz until the 2 1/2 hour window you specified in the gamethread and then to perform the kill if he does not show.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    I'd have to agree with Pizza on that. You mentioned a time frame, in the interest of the game, and can thereby hold to it. That still gives him an hour or so.
  15.  
    "but I think we need to back it up a little because of teh overall voting power of the traitor"

    The mafia would prefer it to be 5-3 as opposed to 5-2-1 but 5-2-1 is better than 6-2 or 5-2 depending on how you want to adjust for the traitor.

    The town would have a slightly better chance of performing a quality lynch if it was looking at a 4-2-1 situation vs a 5-2-1.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    It will be interesting to see how long it takes San to bring that up, as I suspect it will be soon.
  16.  
    MXRider:I'd have to agree with Pizza on that. You mentioned a time frame, in the interest of the game, and can thereby hold to it. That still gives him an hour or so.


    I would never have done it before the window. I'm not sure I will do it at the window.
  17.  
    So far, all of the clues that MX has supplied us with that we've been able to verify have proven to be true.

    With that in mind, I submit that the final mafioso to be uncovered would be one of..

    Pilchard
    Wynton

    Based on the latest murmurings between Nside and MX, I will now speculate that the traitor will turn out to be one of...

    Pilchard
    Wynton

    (:bigsmile:)

    Out for a while...
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    and I am off to the liquor store for tequilla and sweet/sour mix. Time for some nightime fun!
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006 edited
     
    Can we have side bet about the time it will take for san to go crazy and kill himself. He hates being wrong and losing!!
    :boogie:
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    I think it could be fairly soon KT. Nice call!
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    San should get award for being VIP for mafia!!
    :bigsmile:
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    I could conclude with that. He has been out best friend in this game (other than his picking me out, but he backed off of that)
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    Now, Cic brings up a very valid point. It is currently 3-2-1 (Inno/mafia/traitor). If they lynch incorrectly today (which I think they will get a mafia today) it is game over. Cic will most likely be the lynching candidate, leaving the game at 3-1-1, depending on teh doc, it will reopen at 2-1-1 and could end up in a rng for the game.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    back in a bit, drinks need refilling
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006 edited
     
    There are 7 left...4 innocent 2 mafia one traitor.
    If san refuses to vote cic, then it will be hard to lynch him.
    I lay odds they lynch innocent.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    thank you for your correction. In response to your comment, depending on who the traitor is, I agree, and likely even if it is not who I think it is.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    the remaining players:

    Buzz-doctor
    San-Hunter
    cic-mafia
    bb88-innocent
    pilchard-unknown
    irish-unknown
    wynton-unknown

    buzz has said he wants cic and wynton is right there as well, so 2 votes cic. San won't so that means that 2 of bb, irish and pilchard have to go that way and I don't see that happening.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    I think a last minute switch of the traitor wins the game for the mafia in the next lynching.
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    Looking back at first lynch voting...where there was 3 way tie...I am thinking 2 of three were mafia...mx and pilchard. And that is the reason why the mafia and traitor could not pull a save for mx. Now mx could have saved himself if he had switched to bb at the end.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    If I had had about 2 more minutes, bb would not be in this game.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006
     
    MX: "If I had had about 2 more minutes, bb would not be in this game."

    And Nutjob and Cyb would!!!!!!!!!!!!:cry::cry::cry:

    DAMN YOU MX!!!!!!:fierce::fierce:
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 1st 2006 edited
     
    if i didn't know better i would swear bb or san were the traitors
  18.  
    The Fundamental Theorem of Poker: Every time your opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain.
    I mention this because we have been treated to an object lesson of how effective unconventional traitor play can be.

    Take a look at Sanā??s analysis of the first three days of voting that he provides on pg 124. We happen to know that Cic is mafia and that the traitor is one of Irish, Pilchard or Wynton. Yet San examines the actions of these three and concludes that Cicerius cannot be mafia.

    Somebody has played his traitor cards very well.