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  1.  
    The most basic (but not necessarily meaningful) way to analyze the votes would be to just look at the results. Of the four players who are not in San's Circle of Trust (and indeed this applies to all 7 who are left in the game), there is only one player who has voted for a confirmed-within-the-gamethread Innocent on each of the 3 days.

    Cicerius.

    Nice place to start.
  2.  
    Of the three, Pilchard is the one I'd most likely suspect of being crafty enough to play his traitor cards that way. He also is the one (of that same three) who would be most likely to be taken out early in a Mafia hit. Best to leave breadcrumbs of misdirection in that event, I suppose. Note that he laid down votes for both Cicerius and MX on the first day.

    Pilchard continues to focus his attention on Cicerius but he dances the dosey-do in the final minutes of Day Two...voting Cic, then voting No-one, then revoting Cic but only back into an RNG situation. On Day Three he expresses an intent to vote Cic but declines, given that Cic already had a lead in the votes (San and bb88 had not switched to Cyb yet). So one could question the sincerity of his votes for Cicerius.

    Whereas Irish has laid votes down in earnest for Cic the past couple of days when it's coming a lot closer to crunch time. Hard to see the real traitor doing that.
  3.  
    If the town makes a successful lynch today, then I think San becomes poison at night. He'll have enough info from seeing how the lynch went down and who voted correctly that his Hunter bullet will be fired successfully and the enemy would lose one of its own needlessly. The Mafia should not hit him, the Doctor should not protect him. This increases the Doc's chances of making a successful save but we may not need it anyway. If we can get it right today, we stand a good chance of running the table.
    • CommentAuthorPiemaster
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    You could argue that the doctor should protect San tonight just to prevent the mafia managing to kill 2 innocents in one night phase.
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    Pilchard definately knows cic and mx are mafia. There is no way he could as an innocent "guess" right about mx and cic both on the first day. So that puts him in the guilty column.

    He could possibly be the traitor, but most likely mafia. That would explain the day one lynch of mx.

    Now on to the traitor. Wynton just feels innocent to me. I worked with him in the mafia den. When we was bad he didn't post as much on the thread. He has provided alot of deep thinking this game, so I say he is innocent.

    That leaves Irish as traitor. He has acted differently this game.
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    Go back and look at irish's posts. They almost are all quotes of others, with a sentence or two of his own. In doing this (quoting) others, it appears he is posting alot more, but he really isn't saying much.
  4.  
    It is so hard for the mafia to win the endgame the way this one has gone down.
    • CommentAuthorPiemaster
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    I am intrigued by this game. So much clash of personalties and ideas going on.

    I think you are right Nside, I think the balance of power in mafia is now firmly in favour of the innocents. The only reason that this game has been so good is because of the first night detective kill. If the detective had given us just one inoocent, I think this game coukd have been rather routine like games 9 and 10.
    • CommentAuthorPiemaster
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    In game 2 I said that Pilchard ignored the human element of the game almost at his peril. I think San has done very much the same thing this game.
    • CommentAuthorDogs
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    I was typing the following after we lynched Cyb, only to find myself dead. It would have been my first post today if I was still playing. I've not read this thread yet, so I don't know how it holds up:


    When I saw that Cyb was innocent I had a sinking feeling in my gut. I think we‚??re being played perfectly. I‚??m going to put my head on the chopping block and post my theory:

    Mafia: Pilchard and Wynton
    Traitor: Buzz

    Day 1
    The Mafia had the perfect opportunity to swing the vote towards SJ or bb88, but they didn‚??t take it. MX throws away his vote by being the lone person who wants the demise of an innocent Cyb. Why would a known mobster who can save his skin do this? Because they‚??ve decided to play for a sacrifice, with Pilchard and Wynton both backing MX. They‚??ve sided with a very strong innocent in Pie, and are probably looking to form one of those nasty little ‚??Circle of Trust‚??s with him. With two of them in there and the detective already dead, that‚??s a very strong position to be in and the town probably won‚??t recover.

    So what of Buzz in this? Well, he started on Pilchard for no apparent reason. Or perhaps the reason was to let himself be known to the Mafia. He may or may not have worked out the voting plan, but he knows that once bb88 puts Pilchard back on the rack it will be far too suspicious if he doesn‚??t follow. When he cast the vote he probably didn‚??t reckon for Irish piling on. Wynton tries to divert this in a very casual fashion, but doesn‚??t say much.

    The RNG picks MX. We all think this is great news for the Innocents. It is actually a stroke of luck for the Mafia.

    Night 2
    The Mafia decide to kill SJ. Why? This bothered me greatly at the time, as it seemed like such a soft kill, particularly on the back of losing a member. The reason I now think they did this was to frame those who voted for him: Cic and me. The other choice they would have had to frame innocents was bb88. But three innocents consisting of Nut, Cyb and San appear to be a far stronger prospect to crack, and so it makes sense to leave them be for now.

    Day 2
    Pilch declares Buzz to be innocent, and Buzz responds in type saying that he is now happy with Pilchard. The Mafia now know the identity of the Traitor. Pie asks Pilch what he thinks of me, and Pilch sets about pulling apart one of my posts and deeming it all suspicious. He doesn‚??t go too overboard though and gives me the newbie lifeline, before testing the water by passing the ball back to Pie. Pie is also unsure of me.

    Wynton posts his list, declaring Cic and I to be most likely Mafia. He puts in a couple of theories, but leaves it very much open to withdrawal by stating that the main reason for both of us is process of elimination.

    Come the vote, the Mafia are laughing: 3 innocents are on the slate. In this scenario we‚??d probably expect them to split their vote, so they do the opposite and both vote for Cic.

    The RNG does away with Nut, and the Mafia are pretty pleased.

    Night 3
    Pie has become strongly trusted by this point, and it is clear that others are rallying to him. He also has declared the Mob and their sidekick on his innocence list, and they don‚??t want this to change. The list is also very similar to Nut‚??s. They take a punt that he is not protected by the Doc, who presumably thinks that Pie is such an obvious choice for protection that he takes his medicine elsewhere.

    Day 3
    After the 3 way tie, it was pretty clear we would go for Cic and Cyb again. The Mafia had yet another stroke of luck yesterday when Cic and I both voted for Cyb, and this is made even more suspicious by the fact that a) Cyb wasn‚??t up for the RNG and b) Pie was a proven innocent. Pilch notes this, and declares that Cic and I should be on the slate. Wynton points to Cyb and Cic as MX made a list of Cyb, Cic and Pilch, and surely Pilch can‚??t be guilty? San comes out as Hunter, and Pilch states that if the ‚??real‚?? hunter is out there then not to declare himself until at least tomorrow. Wynton backs Pilch‚??s idea that Cic and I are on the slate, though not too strongly. Irish gets dragged into discussion by Cyb, and Wynton makes a case for potential guilt.

    Wynton and Pilch split their vote this time. Much has been said about Cyb and Cic with one being innocent/the other must be Mafia, which means it doesn‚??t really matter who they choose ‚?? the other is up for the chop tomorrow.

    Night 4
    I get killed. B&$*ards. They must have known I was typing this‚?¶
  5.  
    I‚??m heartened by Nside‚??s recent assessment but I am not as optimistic this morning as I was last night.

    Day Four: 4-3 with 4 unknowns: a 25% chance of getting it wrong

    Day Five: 3-2 with 3 unknowns: a 33% chance of getting it wrong (the 75% of the time we get here)

    Day Six: 2-1 with 2 unknowns: a 50% chance of getting it wrong (the 50% of the time that we get here)

    (The Hunter never comes into play if he is neither lynched nor snuffed)

    If it is correct to string those probabilities together, it looks like objectively we‚??re only expected to win this thing 25% of the time.
    A silver lining is that the baddies are going to have to work LONG and HARD to win this thing. There‚??s going to be a lot of politicking, posturing, and backstabbing going on and it should be fun to watch. This is the type of thing that Lyndon Johnson the Senator did for a living all the time and is why, if I were MX, I would choose LBJ over Margaret Thatcher or Ghandi to be my second mafia man. :smile:

    I'm wondering if taking a reading on who seems to be working the least would be a tell of innocence. Cicerius has stepped up his posting over his first three days (not hard to do)and Pilchard and Wynton have really made some efforts here. Irish was toe to toe with San right at the beginning but seems to have dropped off.
  6.  
    Welcome, Dogs !
  7.  
    Apologies, not quite as bad as I thought. If we manage to hit mafia on both Days Four and Five, then we don't even need to go to the 50% showdown on Day Six.

    And if we hit a traitor there might be an information yield, depending on who it is. Irish as traitor would seem to clear Pilchard.
    • CommentAuthorDogs
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    I got Buzz wrong then. :bigsmile:

    I was gutted they killed me off, as I put quite a lot of effort into that post. I was even sent it to Nside because I didn't want to waste it.
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    It sucks when you spend a large amount of time on a post and then you are killed before you can post it.
    • CommentAuthorDogs
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    At least I can post it in heaven :bigsmile:

    I've been at a bit of a loss what to do today. Feels like there's a big void in my life now. I found it quite ironic that Nside killed me off in my sleep because I've been lying awake at night thinking about Mafia.
  8.  
    Pg 125

    A stick of dynamite from Pilchard ‚?? ‚??Cic and Buzz are on opposite sides.‚?Ě

    And a lump of plutonium - ‚??Wynton and BB are on opposite sides.‚?Ě

    If I was San, I would grab Pilchard by the scruff of his neck and wouldn‚??t let go until he had shown his workpapers. I can‚??t imagine why a true inno would keep this to himself. Pilchard mutters something about saving these ‚??tells‚?Ě for future games but he doesn‚??t play that often.

    (BB and Wynton both pick up on this a little later)

    When San was the top innocent in Game 2, he and Pilchard had a great working relationship with each other. Sure isn‚??t the case now.
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    Pilch almost played the perfect mafia. He voted for his bros as much as he could. But that post on page 125 is just silly.
  9.  
    "I've been lying awake at night thinking about Mafia."

    Welcome to ITH Mafia :smile:
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    Dogs: "I found it quite ironic that Nside killed me off in my sleep because I've been lying awake at night thinking about Mafia."

    Welcome to the dark side. :tongue:
  10.  
    Jinx !!
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    Pizza:rolling:
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    Hey I didn't even play this time and I am hooked.
  11.  
    And now for the Helpful Hints From Heloise Moment of the Game !!!

    Wynton checks out from the proceedings on pg 131 but not before reiterating that his three suspects are...

    Cic
    Irish
    Pilch
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    Why is Wynton leaving...and why not vote for Pilch??

    Hmm..maybe he is the perfect traitor..
  12.  
    Gotta love this from Cicerius on pg 132...

    "[quote="bb88"][color=darkgreen]Cicerius I'm going to ask you a simple

    Sure."

    He can always come back and say that he wasn't officially lying there - that that response didn't count because he got the quote tags messed up.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    Hey all, just popped in to see where things ended up today. If bb's vote count is correct (I have not read any posts from today), looks like game over.
  13.  
    Which would mean that your guess that Irish was the traitor also meant that Pilch was innocent.
  14.  
    Ha ! Nice curveball there MX but the umpire called it a Ball :wink:

    Wynton ???? I'm in shock. Insead of going into Day Five with 3 unknowns, we go in with two. And we only have to hit two.
  15.  
    Well, the Detective is taking the night off - actually we sorta skipped the night phase anyway but he ain't needed now.

    Still in shock.

    Woot !
  16.  
    And this means that both Irish was the traitor and that the Pilchard he exposed to such jeopardy on Day One was mafia.

    Crafty play there from Irishian.

    Out for awhile...
    • CommentAuthorDogs
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    Well, 1 out of 3 in my theory wasn't sooo bad.

    I'm absolutely shocked about Wynton. One of the reasons I felt so strongly about him is that I thought he had played a perfect game. I guess I still have a lot to learn.

    On the flip side, playing Mafia appears to have helped my poker. I've just won a DS to the Million. I won't be playing in that as I'm not ready (and need to catch up on my sleep). Nside, if you want the T$ for the DAQ then they're yours.
    • CommentAuthorkrazytxan
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    krazytxan:Go back and look at irish's posts. They almost are all quotes of others, with a sentence or two of his own. In doing this (quoting) others, it appears he is posting alot more, but he really isn't saying much.


    Yea! I may be late with my conclusion...but correct.
    It sure helps when you know more than the regular players do.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    buzz is trying to make this interesting. I was quite shocked to see the kill on Wynton overnight.
    • CommentAuthorMXRider
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2006
     
    pizzabynight:Which would mean that your guess that Irish was the traitor also meant that Pilch was innocent.


    Actually, wasn't trying to throw a curve at all. When i saw the pilchard was gone, it was game over for us. Cic should go today leaving irish as the traitor left in town all by himself, although they may go after Irish first.
  17.  
    MX, as I said earlier in here, I have been the victim of misdirection in these dead threads more than once so have grown wary. But you have been nothing but a man of honor and a man of your word in the Game 12 dead thread and I salute you. And it did occur to me that what you meant is that you surveyed your team's prospects and they looked bleak.

    I also see more now as to why Nside was assessing the town's chances as being good. It's not the numbers that I layed out earlier (which gave the town a 25% chance) that are so relevant, rather it's the lay of the land. The mafia have to keep hitting at night and who do they hit on Night Six if Irish is lynched. San is poison, Buzz should be protecting BB, and if Buzz is hit that eliminates the townie for whom there was the largest sliver of doubt remaining.

    Buzz did manage to give me an OMG moment there though when he turned on BB :shocked::surprised:

    Who knows how the game might have turned out if the RNG had been more kind ?
  18.  
    The mafia won a nice RNG when it was Cic and someone else. When they lost MX, it was two mafia players and one innocent on the slate. I think MX would have gone very soon even if he survived that first vote.
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeDec 3rd 2006
     
    Nside: "The mafia won a nice RNG when it was Cic and someone else."

    That would have been me. :cry:
    • CommentAuthorPiemaster
    • CommentTimeDec 3rd 2006
     
    Looks like this one's over. The innocents rallied very well yesterday I think.
    • CommentAuthorPiemaster
    • CommentTimeDec 3rd 2006
     

    I'm absolutely shocked about Wynton. One of the reasons I felt so strongly about him is that I thought he had played a perfect game. I guess I still have a lot to learn.


    But for your first game you played extremely well.
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeDec 3rd 2006
     
    Greetings all :D
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeDec 3rd 2006
     
    Hooray for the innocents - it seems hard to lose from here, but then I've seen similar positions thrown away...
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeDec 3rd 2006
     
    Hello all. Kind of an interesting game, I thought. From my perspective, the key was getting San to acknolwedge the Pilch as bad guy possibility. I hope he didn't take anything personally, but I thought I had to communicate some degree of pique to make him re-evaluate.
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeDec 3rd 2006
     
    That sneaky pilchard, eh? He was more of a suspect than I let on, but sadly San had me lynched before I could launch the real onslaught :cry:
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeDec 3rd 2006
     
    I can understand why you waited before accusing Pilch. My suspicions were there for a while earlier also, but I think it worked out better waiting for him to make a mistake.

    How come no one else made a bigger deal about his claim that San had persuaded him to vote for Cyb? The idea that Pilchard would be convinced by San seemed incredibly unbelievable to me.
  19.  
    "How come no one else made a bigger deal about his claim that San had persuaded him to vote for Cyb? The idea that Pilchard would be convinced by San seemed incredibly unbelievable to me."

    Yep. At the time Pilch said that I remember thinking about the excerpts from Piemaster's "book" on day One re: MX Rider trying to blend in.
    • CommentAuthorcyb
    • CommentTimeDec 3rd 2006
     
    Seems like it's all over in the game thread... :jumping:
  20.  
    Cic just said this in the mafia thread and I think he has it perfectly right:

    We also messed up when the vote was between me and Cyb. Pilchard should never ever have voted for Cyb there. Had he gone for me he'd have been in an amazing position to take down the game by himself. Instead he went from a virtually certain innocent to very likely mafia, and with me on so many peoples' lists we found ourselves with no trusted members of the mafia whatsoever.


    If Pilchard takes out Cicerius there, he might well have won the game by himself. No way San ever believes he's mafia then. Other people might even not suspect it. He could have been the decisive vote, too.
    • CommentAuthorWynton
    • CommentTimeDec 3rd 2006
     
    I absolutely agree that the Pilchard vote for Cyb was a blunder. That was the main reason I decided to review everything he did after that.