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General: Mafia Den for Game #15

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  1.  
    I am totally stoked to be mafia this game.

    We have four members:

    AgentX is me, nside
    AgentA is Tall Paul
    AgentZ is mxrider
    AgentQ is Taz

    I'll post a few strategy musings in a few minutes.
  2.  
    Usually the smart strategy with a group of four is to position one person to be the one who is supposed to win the thing. We would try to set that person up to be on the right side of a critical lynching or two (usually leading the bandwagon to take out someone on our side who was bound to go anyhow, like me) and they usually should be a somewhat lower post count type person who can lay a bit low from time to time.

    We may not really have a group that lets us do that, because we are all pretty high profile. That could work in our favor, since we are unlikely to be targeted in the first round or two.

    We will likely break some of the "rules" and act in a bit more coordinated fashion that past mafia teams have done. This is going to be fun.
  3.  
    Hello mafia chums, TP here.

    Looks like a good group for us. I look forward to working with you all.
  4.  
    woootaaaa, this is a good group. A couple of early thoughts:

    1. With no doctor, nside will get suspiscious looking as time goes on.
    2. How does this effect our move towards kills?
    3. What's up with these teasers and a ghost?
  5.  
    First things first. We should always be on the alert for signs that someone is or is not the doctor or the masons. You can very often recognize the masons because they don't always think about how valuable secrecy is for them early on. You look for them much like you look for signs of mafia.

    I just read the game thread for the first time. Does anyone have any clue about the puzzles? Will they help us or only the town?
  6.  
    I have no idea about the puzzles, but I can't see them helping us. I think the structure is a bit heavy towards us anyhow, so I Think the ghost is gonna have to help the town.
  7.  
    Nside is likely to be an early casualty for us, I think, as he'll probably be the subject of an early investigation. As you say, someone of us should probably lead a movement to lynch him at some stage.

    It's going to be difficult for any of us to lie low, as we're all usually pretty active. I could use work as an excuse, which will probably be kind of true anyway.

    We should probably try and interact with each other (I'm thinking of attacking another mafia member), as this is often picked up as an innocent tell.
  8.  
    AgentZ:1. With no doctor, nside will get suspiscious looking as time goes on.


    I agree completely. I will try to spin things that the mafia are trying to save themselves a kill because they know that the town will eventually kill me. However, the crowd will almost certainly turn on me by the third day at the latest. One of you should be a leader of the movement to lynch me and one of you should probably be a moderately strong defender of me. Defending me sounds dumb until you think about it. They will think that nobody in the mafia would be willing to stick their necks out in that way, so it will actually act as proof of innocence. Just don't go too far -- no innocent would hang their neck out a long way to save me.

    AgentZ:2. How does this effect our move towards kills?


    It doesn't. We should kill people without regard for that at all.

    AgentZ:3. What's up with these teasers and a ghost?


    I don't know. I sent Nut a PM to ask if the mafia wants to solve the puzzles or not. It could be that the ghost will only hurt us. It isn't clear.
  9.  
    How will the no kill on the first night affect our strategy?

    As regards the puzzles, I think I might have got one of them and if I'm right they relate to ITH members usernames. He says it doesn't matter if you're innocent or mafia, the ghost may help either team.

    Who the hell is Drew Pearson?
  10.  
    A "tricky" detective may not investigate me on the first day or two for fear that it will be wasted when the mafia kills me. They also will not reveal themselves for a few days. I can probably stay alive until the reveal, but that just means that it will be more important that one of you has already been targeting me before the detective reveal. The cool thing is that the detective needs to lay low as long as they can because there is no doctor. This may be what saves us. If we get lucky and catch one of the masons early, I can even false reveal as the mason when the days get shorter.

    The detective's instinct is going to be to lay low and avoid trouble at first. They will feel enormous pressure to win the game, since they are the critical role. If we can get lucky and find them, it might put us over the top.
  11.  
    I think Drew Pearson refers to a famous Dallas Cowboy's wide receiver in the 70s. I also figured that the clues would point to ITHers who were not playing and would appear when "summoned" to post their opinions. Does that fit with your guess?
  12.  
    AgentA:How will the no kill on the first night affect our strategy?


    It makes the town have nothing to go on for the first lynch, but they never do anyhow. I'm going to push for lynching the new guy at first. I'll use the reasoning that we don't know anything about him and therefore he will be the hardest to read. Other people will probably target "low volume" posters.

    The no information strategy allows the possibility that someone will vote "no lynch." I actually think that is a good strategy for the town, since they want to get as many investigations in as possible for the detective before the reveal, but I don't think it will work. One of you could run with that idea because they will think that the mafia won't stick their neck out with a crazy plan like that.
  13.  
    AgentX:I think Drew Pearson refers to a famous Dallas Cowboy's wide receiver in the 70s. I also figured that the clues would point to ITHers who were not playing and would appear when "summoned" to post their opinions. Does that fit with your guess?

    Yes it does. I thought :
    3. Remove the two-letter goodbye from this jolly fellow
    could be San - Santa is a jolly fellow and two-letter goodbye is ta (ta).
  14.  
    If we are right and the clues are pointing to ITHers who will serve as the ghosts, then one of the answers is certainly pilchard. We might be able to work backwards like that. San is probably another.

    San is definately the answer to #3 "Remove the two letter goodbye from this jolly fellow. Santa - "ta" = San.

    We should solve them ASAP.
  15.  
    I swear, I was typing that without seeing your reply. I sent it to Nut. Had you already done so?

    One answer will be krazytxan and one will be pilchard. I don't know the fourth yet.
  16.  
    I hadn't sent it to Nut, but I have now.

    Can't seem to make Pilchard fit with any of them right now, or krazytxan for that matter (unless that's the Drew Pearson one, Dallas is in Texas, right?).

    Not sure what the significance of March 14th is, I'll try googling it.
  17.  
    Bingo!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day

    Gotta be Piemaster. I'll PM Nut with that now :bigsmile:

    Interestingly, I also found this for March 14th

    http://steakandablowjobday.com/
  18.  
    ah yes, 3/14, pi....

    All I found was blowjob day :)
  19.  
    #4 is krazytxan

    LTDDDZEIW

    L-1 is K
    T-2 is R
    D-3 is A
    D-4 is Z
    D-5 is Y
    Z-6 is T
    E-7 is X
    I-8 is A
    W-9 is N

    The other one has got to be Pilchard, but I can't figure out how yet. I've got to go to lunch.
  20.  
    AgentA:Bingo!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day

    Gotta be Piemaster. I'll PM Nut with that now :bigsmile:


    Good one. Pi was the first bit and "not grasshopper" is master from the Kung Fu TV show.
  21.  
    So we need "King Drew Pearson" to work out to pilchard.

    I'm tempted to just tell Nut that it is pilchard even though I don't know why. There is no posted penalty for wrong guesses. Maybe there really will be, though.
  22.  
    Who else is a notable drop out from this game? Anyone besides pilchard that we are overlooking?
  23.  
    now depending on how the ghosts shall appear, I don't like San being one of them at all. He has a very good read on me as mafia.....

    So 2 and 3 are done.


    #4:LTDDDZEIW is as easy as a 1 and a 2 and a 3

    was looking at this from LT= Leiutenant, LTD= limited...
  24.  
    The other possibilities for the final clue are BB88, Fatshaft or IrishIain (all have played a lot of the mafia games).

    Did Drew Pearson wear the 88 shirt? Google again!

    Edit: It seems he did. And "BB" King

    God, I'm clever :wink:
  25.  
    fatshaft?
  26.  
    nice one there TP....

    and I just saw krazy's.

    So, now that we have all 4 of these, does this affect anything at all yet?
  27.  
    AgentZ:So, now that we have all 4 of these, does this affect anything at all yet?

    I've no idea. I suppose we've had a head start on the town in getting them, but not sure what advantage, if any, we'll get from it.

    Anyway, we can forget the puzzles now, and move on.
  28.  
    agreed, now we just need to solve the mystery of the whereabouts of Taz
  29.  
    Excellent! So we sent in a message on all four puzzles. We have to have at least two of them first, maybe all three. I'm not sure how the ghosts will "help" us, but it has to be better than the ghosts hurting us.
  30.  
    Taz hasn't been online yet today. I think he has only played one game so far, so maybe he should be our deep cover guy that we hope will go the distance. When the game gets into the middle stages and I am gone, don't forget that one of the most important things to do is to have one person in the best possible shape to make it to the end. Even if it means giving up the second-to-last member, you should focus on making the last person look as clean as possible.

    If you know who that is from the outset (which we don't really clearly know here), you should have that person read the den only once in a while and ask them to play in the most natural fashion that they can. They shouldn't make moves based on their strategic value and should be happy to burn any and all of the other players when they can. If Taz really hasn't played too many games, we should look for spots for him to play the newbie card and to make dumb posts. Innocents often think that stupid posts are evidence that they aren't evil (see BD as a bad guy for a good example).

    MX, when you have been mafia before, I think you have taken too careful of a line. You should be more willing to get in the mix and toss accusations and votes around. Seeming too careful is a red flag. The great thing is that we are all smart and flexible, so we should be good no matter who makes it through for us.
  31.  
    More thoughts on the other players:

    Relative unknowns and probably no imminent threat:
    badboywes
    thereisnospoon

    People that everyone seems to suspect no matter what:
    BugsBunny
    packone
    Bigredchef
    wade

    People that I'd just as soon see dead:
    BernardDogs
    cybrarian
    janeg
    PizzaByNight
    Wynton

    I think that BD, Pizza and Wynton particularly have a knack of getting trusted by the rest of the innocents. That is especially dangerous. When we look for people to kill we should focus first, obviously, on finding the specials and eliminating them. Next, we need to eliminate those players that we will have a hard time getting others to believe are guilty. Don't worry so much about who is voting for us, worry about who can be made to look guilty when on a slate with us. Update this list here as the facts change and new people look guilty or innocent.

    If the detective is still alive by Day 3, try to stir up discussion of when or if he should reveal. Be very careful, hopefully just hinting at it and getting some innocent to take the bait, but a discussion of if they should reveal will often help you rule out other players as possible detectives. Starting up a vote for me will also give you a chance to find them. By Day 3, they probably know I'm mobbed up and might reveal themselves by their enthusiasm for my lynch.

    Also try to get as many people accused as you can over the first few days. The detective will be prone to be either completely silent or more defensive than the usual person.

    When you come under attack, don't completely ignore the attack, but don't act defensive. If there are specific points that you are accused on, make your case, but don't get ruthless in defense or go on excessively about it. The odds are good, especially in the first few days that the crowd will move on later. This also means that we can usually vote for each other here and there on the first day. If it feels natural to vote for TP or MX or whoever, do it. Don't give up and let one us get killed in the early days if you can help it, but don't be afraid to vote against one of us either. Try to find a bandwagon that you can move to, though. Players with a couple of sticky votes on them tend to be the ones that get the late steamroller action. If you are one of two votes on one of us late and the action is moving somewhere else, jump off so that people aren't tempted to roll one of us at the last minute. TP and I can probably get away with it, since we tend to be real active doing that kind of crap anyhow. MX and Taz should seem a bit more thoughtful.
  32.  
    I'm going to advocate lynching a low-lying guy at the outset, but if I can get on one of the last five names when it counts, I will. The more I think about it, the better I like the idea that one of us should advocate the no-lynch position. If anyone feels like that is a natural position for them, they should think about taking that line. I'll fight you pretty hard. ;)

    Have any of you advocated no-lynch in an earlier game?
  33.  
    AgentX:Have any of you advocated no-lynch in an earlier game?

    I don't think I ever have gone for a no-lynch, but I probably could in this game with there being no night kill first night.

    I like the idea of one of us not reading the den. I think it'll make them seem more natural and innocent. In fact I've toyed with the idea of doing that myself if I was ever in the mafia again.
  34.  
    Probably should be Taz of the four of us. You are almost as dead as me. Taz and/or MX will have to win this thing.
  35.  
    So this is what it's like to have leadership in the den.....
  36.  
    Well, we can try to coordinate, but when all hell breaks loose, it will be chaos again. But we can make general strategies. When it gets later, an early vote followed by a post that you can't be around at the deadline can be a good tactic. You can almost always find fault with what the people who were active did. If they got one of us, you can join the happy talk.

    I'll try to post as much of my thoughts as I can while I'm still alive. I hope I can help you find the specials early. With these numbers, if we can get the detective early on, we have a pretty good chance. The downside is that TP and I are pretty likely early investigations, although Bugs and some others are also up there very high on the investigation list. There really aren't any bad players any more. Thereisnospoon obviously plays at 2+2. Wes may be the only real newbie.
  37.  
    Hey, MX. What game(s) were you mafia? I want to skim them at some point and see if I see anything else that might be tripping you up.
  38.  
    ugh, I'm not real sure.
  39.  
    Do you know how many there were?
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeApr 9th 2007
     
    Hey evil do-ers!

    Taz said he would not be back home until sometime today. He has not read my PM to him.

    Thread opens shortly. Good luck.
  41.  
    What do we think about posting in the thread today?

    I believe that historically they have said one of the first 3 or 4 posts is by a mafia member. Should we hold off posting for a little while and see what's going on, or just wade straight in there?
    • CommentAuthorNutjob
    • CommentTimeApr 9th 2007
     
    "Steak and blowjob day"

    Looooooooooooooooooooooool

    :updown::updown:
  43.  
    game 9, 12
  44.  
    I'll probably post fairly early, because I'm me. It will look odd if I stay out. I don't think that one is a strong enough tell that you need to worry much either way. Mafia players sometimes look too eager at the outset. We can probably encourage discussion about the riddles -- that should be safe and look helpful.
  45.  
    I thought that there was one other game in which I was mafia
  46.  
    I'll likely be in fairly early as well as it is difficult for me not to be around. Likely talk about teh riddles a bit. Would you 2 like to have me go forward with a no lynch idea?
  47.  
    I think you are probably the best one to go no lynch if Taz won't be here.
  48.  
    It is fine if you are the first to mention it, but don't make it your first post. In fact, you'd probably rather be first to mention it.
  49.  
    I should also mention that I will attack you for advocating no-lynch. Not right away, but eventually. Don't worry. In the end, I hope to make you look less guilty. I think people should suspect the second or third person who likes a no-lynch.
  50.  
    ok, wes just opened his first post with a no lynch potential.....gah

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