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    • CommentAuthornsidestrate
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007 edited
    Pizza and TRK. A fine company of players in these early, early days.
    These rules suggest a number of FPS moves.

    Just so you guys know, I return roles in response to investigations in equal proportion to the number of players. It is now slightly less likely to get a result of "mafia" than it was on the first night. You could investigate yourself and get a result of mafia. Of course, if you are the real detective, it would be a shame to waste a night.
    • CommentAuthorwade
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    Sorry Pizza - I think you may need to start playing under an alias to get past d1 as an innocent :( Kudos to San for the TRK pickup, I don't think I would have ever seen it.

    I've only done a quick glance, but am really wondering why Bugs didn't get more scrutiny. How may lists can one man post?
    • CommentAuthorwade
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    nsidestrate:These rules suggest a number of FPS moves.

    If one player gets multiple investigations each night, is the same result returned or is it random for each?
    I'm happy to have sat on the sidelines and let San have a chance to have a great Day One.
    • CommentAuthorwade
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    That's 2 preemptive strikes against you in a row now Pizza...can't say I blame them. Only solution for you is to be mobbed up more or play worse :wink:

    I can help with option #2 :smile:
    nsidestrate:These rules suggest a number of FPS moves.

    If one player gets multiple investigations each night, is the same result returned or is it random for each?

    Random for each. I have a spreadsheet of random numbers and I assign results to investigations as they come in. The first night was six detective, deputy, detective, mafia, then more detectives. In fact, one person thinks Cybrarian is a deputy and one person thinks he is a detective. After tonight, yet another will think he is mafia. Cyb is the most investigated person thus far.
    I was in IRC about a half hour before the game started and felt that the demeanor of KT, MX and jane was a little on the unnaturally subdued side. IMO that carried over to the start of the game and I continued to remain concerned about all 3 afer I read their initial posts. Later on I became concerned about the activity levels of TRK and packone (had forgotten about his football excursion) so I was very happy to see both TRK's and KT's names in the mix late.

    In contrast I had my mouth ajar that Nutjob was receiving so many votes. In his first post he outlined the same plan of attack for the town that I was going to be pushing and was tracking the Nutjob that we saw in Game 14 when he went against the grain and pushed a radical plan to address the mystery that the moderator had infused into the game's lineup of special characters. Plus, checking off innocent names from the getgo is a sign of the Nutjob that likes to make the rounds - just what I want to be seeing (as opposed to an absent Clouseau who is probably getting manicured in some fancy Parisian house of pleasure).
    "Cyb is the most investigated person thus far."

    Interesting....I think that would be a cool distinction.
    "Only solution for you is to be mobbed up more or play worse"

    Three times in these games I have not even been able to say Hi. It blows because it adjusts the rake that I have to pay to play Mafia to a very high level.

    (the rake is when I receive a Mafia PM)
    Nightcap post....

    I went through some of the players' posts tonight. I'm a touch more comfortable with badgirldre, fojar and packone after doing so (and very comfortable with jane), but wouldn't mind seeing KT or torch lynched in Day Two. I didn't get around to MX or Cyb.
    • CommentAuthorbigredchef
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    Just want to put this out early....wes is inno, and pretty sure KT is mobbed up. Haven't read too much more of the thread, but I would put money on wes being inno.
    • CommentAuthorwade
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    MX has been pretty blah with his posts, but I always suspect him. I hardly ever suspect Bugs, but something doesn't seem right. Fojar needs some pressure as well.

    Suprizingly this may be the first game ever that Jane doesn't give me the hebejebies. Cyb seems fine to me as well, which is almost as odd. Wes is a coinflip as always, but seems ok. Mrs Wes seems ok too.

    I'm guessing San gets killed tonight...if NJ gets offed on night 2 I'd really wonder about Bugs.
    Bugs is going tonight.
    Wow.... I sure thought it would be San or Nutjob first.

    (lol...I'm not going to panic on my reads concerning those two....will let future nights tell me whether any alarm bells should be going off)
    Was TRK the captain in the Den ? It’s possible and if so it might say something about what we’d expect to find in terms of the activity profiles of the rest of the den members – that there’d be a lot of laying back in the shadows. KT and torch fit that profile and I’d be happy to see them on a slate.

    Is there a mafioso that has been highly active in the game, though ? TRK did say “Don’t investigate the strong players early !” Was he saying that to sound innocent or did he have an ulterior motive ? He also said he was going to very suspicious of the low-liers (and even warned fenris and dre). Perhaps he wouldn’t say that if his entire camp is composed of low-liers. My problem is that leaves me wondering whether any of the fairly active wes, Bugs, cyb or MX are dirty and I can find reasons why all might be innocent.
    Working alphabetically through some of the players that TRK comments on or has exchanges with….

    In two instances he seems to want the town to find wes suspicious – you wouldn’t fan those flames for a player you hoped to make it to the end.

    He warns dre about low activity – I take that at face value and don’t think he’d be wanting to draw attention to a possible endgamer.

    My sense is that he was hoping that his vote for bb88 could catch some support from the town (or at least that it would be a vote that would not raise eyebrows)

    Says it takes his Bugs read a day or three to kick in. Such a noncommittal comment would be reason to shade Bugs as mafia but if Bugs is in the Den with TRK the plan would be for TRK to outlive Bugs. Bugs votes for somebody else on Day One.

    Fairly late he draws attention to Cyb’s increased post volume and doesn’t know what to make of it. I’m guessing that was a subtle effort at gently fanning the flames of suspicion and that Cyb is inno.

    Fenris responds to TRK’s warning about low activity and TRK cautions to not take it personally. Certainly seemed like an exchange that was taking place among two players that don’t share a den.

    Whereas he warns Fenris and dre about low activity, he excuses fojar (or perhaps more accurately he assumes that fojar already knows that a low posting posture is bad) since fojar appears to have had mafia playing experience elsewhere. A reason to shade fojar as suspicious.

    Seems happy to agree with Nutjob that KT’s curiosity concerning wes’s investigation findings puts her in the inno column. Shade KT as suspicious.

    Seems chagrined that Nut wants to make a 100% innocent call for MX. Shade MX as inno. Plus, later on MX points out to TRK that investigating oneself would not be in the interests of the town. That seemed like an exchange that occurred between two that don’t share a Den.

    No comments or exchanges with packone. A reason to slightly shade pack as suspicious but in pack’s posts I see negative links between pack-KT and pack-torch.

    TRK nods approval for wes’s conclusion that Sullen might be a confused inno. Perhaps a reason to shade Sullen as suspicious but I don’t really have a lean here.

    Though his vote is cast for bb88 and not torch he seems to be more than happy to throw torch under the bus for his low posting profile. A reason to shade torch as inno but could it possibly be for cover ? It’s something I would ask because torch gives me mafia twinges.
    (The above two posts were composed before hearing that Bugs was going to be NKed)
    The reason I expected San to go before Bugs is that San was instrumental in getting TRK lynched and would therefore appear to be very much on his game and highly dangerous IF he is innocent.

    The reason I expected Nut to go before Bugs is that Nut was more clearly innocent to me at the start of the game than Bugs was. However, Nut had several votes yesterday so if the town regards him as suspicious it would be silly to NK him before Bugs.

    Am rethinking San here...
    The nsidestrate model for mafia policy is to set the team up for a win. Since the Shark has the lowest life expectancy, he doesn't take any great pains to protect his own life but wants to red carpet the way for his cohorts.

    I would have to argue that San has a similar profile and life expectancy as Nside. However, in Game 8 San threw Nutjob under the bus on Day Two. Has he done the same with TRK here in #18 ? If so it would indicate that he gets a real adrenaline rush from being the Don and would take steps to buy himself some extra game days.

    I'm not saying this is how I lean but it's definitely a possible scenario now.
    When I did my TRK exercise, I left out San and Nut because I felt fairly strongly that both were inno.

    TRK's "Care to elaborate?" exchange with Nutjob (re: MX being 100% inno) has the smell of an exchange between two that don't share a Den.

    There is absolutely nothing re: San in TRK's posts. No comments, no exchanges. Very odd when you consider the consternation that San caused TRK in Game 12 - the "Million Doctor March" game. A reason to shade San as suspicious.
    Day Two now underway....

    Heh...San briefly had an Elmer Fudd avatar for Game 7 before he switched to Dick Dastardly.

    Quick off the cuff musings: If San is mafia, I'd be more inclined to see packone and fojar as mafia (based on TRK's posts). If he is inno, I'd stick with my concerns about KT and torch.
    has wes out-fatshafted fatshaft.....out BDed BD ???
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    Hi all - For the record I was expecting to be killed last night, and said as much in my post to nside. I'm very suspicious of NJ at the moment - why didn't he go to TRK with his neck in a noose? Did he really think that torch had more traction at that stage? I'd find that hard to believe. So I think there's a chance we had 2 on the ropes yesterday.

    San is inno this game, so is Wes. Actually here's what my assessment would have been going into today:

    Probably Innocent:

    which means I'd be looking for 3 mafia in the following:

    This is all without extensive analysis of yesterday - just the easy stuff.
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    pizzabynight:has wes out-fatshafted fatshaft.....out BDed BD ???

    LOL - He just may have!
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    mafia should never voluntarily give up one of their own on day 1 - deep cover or not. San is inno, he never brings up TRK otherwise, not on day 1. There were some other indications as well
    I definitely was looking forward to your take on San after the Bugs NK. I had San as solidly innocent and the NK is the only thing that had me re-examining him.
    I'm here and this dead thread is going to be even more fun than the den!


    Am I evil?

    Yes, I am!

    (At last)
    Was TRK the captain in the den?

    On my first time? Really? :shocked:
    Sorry PIzza. You were my absolute top pick for N0.
    If this dead thread has the potential to be more fun than the den, that would seem to lessen the chances that San and Nutjob are in there too :)
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    NJ I'm not sure about (being in the den). That would be my exploratory mission for today. I'd flat out ask him why he wasn't on TRK and then take it from there, depending on what I thought of his response. If NJ is innocent you can bet that there was at least 1 mafia on him, if not 2.

    If NJ was also guilty it's possible that they hand a mafia on each of them - although those 2 votes could have swung votes in a different direction. I'd also think that the mob would be more likely to give up NJ than TRK, since TRK is more likely to go deep.
    The only real qualms I had about Nut were that whereas he was saying all the right things concerning TRK as San asked him to review the former's posts, he couldn't pull the trigger. But perhaps a mobbed up Nut would have pulled the trigger gladly.

    I might go and look through Nut's posts and also through Bugs' to see if there were any leans from the Bunny that might have made the Mafia umcomfortable.
    "If NJ is innocent you can bet that there was at least 1 mafia on him, if not 2."

    I like that line of thinking. I need to look at that, too.
    wes and pack had votes for Nut but later switched.

    dre, fojar and sullen finished with votes for Nut.

    That strengthens my lean on fojar. Sullen had first voted for wes...I might have to go through Sullen's posts. In my TRK exercise I had Sullen listed as a possible mafia.
    • CommentAuthorwade
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    lol at Cyb - I picture steam coming out of his ears right now.
    I have had a barrel of laughs this game !
    • CommentAuthorwade
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    Fojar would be a fine vote tonight, esp in light of what Bugs mentioned about who voted for NJ. I'd like to see NJ on tonights slate again, if only as a vote magnet for any careless mafia.

    And why, why, WHY did I pick this week to bench McNabb:angry:
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    Cyb may have steam coming from out of his ears (and I sympathize since I felt like that at times yesterday, as far as Wes goes), but he's also on his game. That last question about what the mob was thinking and what their reaction would be as we zeroed in on TRK is a very good one.
    "That last question about what the mob was thinking and what their reaction would be as we zeroed in on TRK is a very good one."

    This is why I continue to have KT and torch in my sights is that their activity increased at the end and their demeanor would seem to fit the profile of mafia reacting under pressure.

    As an aside, Kt first put down her vote for TRK in regular font and wes, in all caps, begged for her to bold it. Another data point that certainly seems to have wes in the inno column.

    Four voted for TRK. Bugs is here. Is one of San, Cyb or KT mafia ?
    Bugs with 48 minutes to go: “At this point I'm happy with either TRK or KT going down, with Fojar in 3rd. I'll be moving my vote shortly.”

    Bugs with 27 minutes to go: “I really don't like how this vote is going.” [It was Nutjob 4, bb88 2, KT 2, TRK 2] (One conclusion that could be drawn is that Bugs would not join in on a lynch Nutjob campaign the next day)

    Bugs with 20 minutes to go: “badgirl, sullen, fojar. I think that if we lynch NJ and he turns up innocent (as he probably will) I'm coming for you. I still think Wes is just misguided here, but at least one of the others (first guess is badgirl) is mafia.”

    So KT, fojar, dre and Sullen would all have reason to see Bugs as a threat. I’d have to compare what the stances of San and Nut were regarding these four names. If there are any where there is a glaring difference with Bugs’ stance, than that name would be a good candidate for the noose.
    • CommentAuthorwade
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    Nut makes a good point re: Bug's post on his role status. I didn't read anything into it, but it is possible the mob interpreted it differently and went special hunting last night.

    Cyb, Jane, San, Wes, and Nut all seem very innocent to me right now. I'm not sure I've ever played or watched a game that I could claim to trust 5 folks this early. Add in the TRK kill and the town seems to be in great shape. I hope.
    There are a couple of things that hang me up in regard to badgirldre being mafia. One is what I discussed from TRK's posts - he publicly called her and Fenris out for low-lying. The second is a comment from her next to last post in Day One, 1:10 before the final bell:

    "yes i am almost caught up on the game. day one seems a lil interesting but more over i am sure day 2 will be filled with more drama and alot easier to read everyone and see if they are innocent or mafia. As for my investigation last night, i sure hope it is right, but too me it might seem a lil questionable."

    More experienced players could certainly be expected to be duplicitous but I took her assessment about her Night One investigation at face value - I think she really did make an investigation and is therefore one of the 12 detectives.
    • CommentAuthorwade
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    I'm worried that BB will return to the game and all attention will focus on him, which would be a terrible thing if he is innocent. Part of me thinks having him mod killed may be a better result for the town :confused:
    I like packone’s questions concerning torch on pg 38. Here’s one quote that gave me a mafia twinge

    Torch wrote: “I'm just trying to create action and force reactions.

    San even notes a few posts above that this is a good thing for us innocents.”

    Nsidestrate focused on this sort of thing in Game 6 – when Mafia link to other players as backup/cover for their actions.

    Torch wrote: “We seem entirely too sold on the "Pizza is a good innocent and early game player" rationale and have left it at that. We need to flush out some more on Pizza. He was the first murder, but neither a word was said about him nor his killers.”

    The way I spun this was that torch was in the Den and the Den was chagrined that my NK did not erupt in suspicions being cast on Nutjob/San/Bugs, etc.
    In this situation though, bb88 has a history of being away for weekend excursions (at least 3 times as an inno)- even to the point of allowing himself to get lynched as Gadget the detective. In bb88's case, the Town will forgive him for "crabbing".
    Time for kickoff !

    (I'm afraid Casper/wack will be smiling at the final gun but we're gonna give it the full 60 minutes worth, I trust.

    • CommentAuthorwade
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007 edited
    Bad day for my fantasy football teams :cry:
    • CommentAuthorBugsBunny
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007
    Krazy is falling further into my innocent column. So is Nut at the moment.

    If they were special hunting when they took me out then they read the same clues as everyone else and dre is probably mafia in truth (she was my night zero investigation, and she did come up dirty. I left enough pointers to that fact that if I was indeed the real detective and was taken out the town should have been able to read the tea leaves).

    If my maybe I am and maybe I'm not post made them take me out while deputy hunting that's a good thing.

    That leads me into deputy investigations. Detectives should start with minor players, since the major players normally sort themselves. Deputy, in this situation, should be going for the major players first. He wants to find a detective before the mafia kills him. And if he finds the real detective he should investigate him each night (obviously) after that. The real trick (which I haven't solved) is how to let the real detective know he's the real detective.
    • CommentAuthorwade
    • CommentTimeSep 23rd 2007 edited
    Yeah, I agree on KT. I just can't see a mafia pushing for a BB lynch now, regardless of BB's status. Torch is disturbing me a bit though.