I’ve been dealing with one of those colds that isn’t really a real cold. Its been just enough to keep me feeling a bit off my game, but not enough to really bring things to a halt. It has sapped my energy a bit.
I did make a number of sports bets on the playoffs and made my second mistake. I was in a hurry to get a decent arb established and I didn’t check carefully to make sure I was getting the numbers right and I made a mistake and wound up risking $200 instead of having everything in balance. It turned out that the right team won and I won the money, but I’m mad at myself for doing something dumb like that. I’ve started a winning streak at Hollywood and losing my huge balance at CRIS. I really thought I could never lose the whole CRIS amount, but it looks like I might. The bad thing is that I am going to have cleared my wagering requirement there, so I’d really rather lose at Hollywood. Trying to get bets laid down that will move all money into one book has really slowed down my bonus hunting and my bankroll has actually drifted slightly south of its peak. I’m now up $2,800 and am resigned to losing a bit more as I work my money free so that I can add on some more bonus money.
I found what appears to be a major arb on the Candian election. It looks like -500 at CRIS (on the conservatives) and +1182 at Pinny (on the liberals). The lines are so far off I wonder if they haven’t defined their terms differently. It would work out to a sure win of about $50 on a $550 bet. They limit these types of bets to relatively small amounts. I haven’t pulled the trigger yet while I try to figure out the catch.
Poker has been good when I’ve managed to play. I’m up another $365, bringing the Party total to $722 in five days or so. I’ve not played very much, but I’m pleased with my game. I had one of those funny guys who has a VP$IP of 80%, yet he insists on berating the other players for bad play. I just felt like I really had a great read on him. This is a good example of a hand where I was pleased with the value I got from him:
Party Poker
Limit holdem Ring game
Limit: $15/$30
8 players
Converter
Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with 8â? Jâ?¦
4 folds, CO raises, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls.
Flop: Tâ? Aâ?¦ Jâ? (6SB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, SB folds, Hero calls.
Turn: Aâ?¥ (4BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO calls.
River: 7â?¦ (8BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.
Results:
Final pot: 10BB
Hero shows 8s Jd
CO doesn’t show Tc Qd
I really thought he would show just a King or a Queen, but I was sure that was a good value bet on the river.
I feel much more confident about playing maniacs these days, although the swings can still be brutal. I think I used to fall back in my shell too much and missed some good chances to take them down while I waited for good hands. I’m doing a much better job of taking it to them now. I still think I’ve made a few too many “clever” folds. I was reviewing my river folds tonight and i think 2 of the 7 folds on the river in the last five days were a mistake.
It looks like I should have a few protege updates coming next week. I should have qualified for the top 100, 500 and 1,000 as well as the round 2 for Seat 1.
