April wrap-up

Thursday, May 1, 2008 12:50 | Filled in SuperNova Quest

April was a bit of a struggle, because I played almost no poker for half the month and had to scramble to get in enough hands by the end of the month. I definitely played badly for several stretches as a result, sometimes making poor table selection decisions and sometimes just missing obvious opportunities. I played virtually no short-handed poker and absolutely no NL poker this month. I fell short of my profit goal for the month (again!), but given the various mistakes I made at different times, I feel happy to book a win at all. Hopefully I will be in a good frame of mind when Stars announces the double VPP promotion, because I’m going to try to push myself to play a lot more hands than usual during that promo. I might go for shortstacking some NL, since I’ve been playing around a bit with the math and I think I could come up with a fairly credible strategy that would at least break even and would let me crank out a ton of hands.

Here is the picture of the month as a graph (click to enlarge):

Somehow, the graph looks bogus, because I had a 20 minute session on the last day that seems to be eaten by the chart.  I’m going to show you a graph of that last session, not so much to “prove” my numbers as to illustrate the variability inherent in playing poker.  This session was just 32 hands long and accounted for a quick spike of almost $900.  Given that my whole month was nearly 8,000 hands, the fact that one can win (or lose!) that much in 32 hands illustrates the risk of looking at short-term results.  To put it in perspective, if I continue to play at this pace for the entire year, I will have played 100,000 hands of poker this year and many people would argue that a winning player could possibly have a downswing over 100,000 hands of play.  I’m not sure I agree with that, but it is absolutely the case that short-term results are somewhat unpredictable.  Here’s the short play while I waited for Suited to finish doing something or another (again, click to see in full-size glory):

Anyhow, I guess I’m happy enough with how the month turned out in the end.  For those of you who work better with numbers than pictures, here is the high level summary in text form:

APRIL Monthly Goal April Actual YTD Goal YTD Actual
Hands 5,583 7,466 22,332 33,822
FPPs 8,333 10,223 33,333 45,185
Money $3,333 $1,840 $13,333 $13,856

I’m well ahead of my hands played and FPP goals and just ever so slightly ahead of my profit goal.  As I said last week, I think that the profit goal is going to be difficult to meet, because I expected to play about 50% 30/60 and 50% 15/30, but it isn’t turning out that way at all.  I know I am getting by far the most hands at 15/30 and I’m also playing a fairly high number of 10/20 and 5/10 tables because they are often my only choice when I play.  I probably screwed up this month because the tables were pretty juicy early on with people chasing the bonus who weren’t really regular players, but I couldn’t play that much.  Here is the breakdown by limit:

Limit Amount Won/Lost
$30/$60 $1,342
$15/$30 ($623)
$10/$20 $938
$5/$10 $183

As I said earlier, I didn’t play No Limit at all and I also took no shots at 50/100 this month.  It is a bit unusual that 15/30 was actually a money-loser for me, since that is usually my bread-and-butter limit.  I don’t think there is any particularly significant reason for that, except that I had one session where I was four tabling 3 15/30 tables and a 10/20 and I played particularly badly that night.  I think I dropped about $1,500 in that session and most of it was bad play.

For the sake of completeness, here is the breakdown of full ring versus short-handed.  Again, I didn’t really intentionally seek out any short-handed tables, just some of my full ring games went short.  The heads-up action was exactly 36 hands, so it wasn’t significant either.

Style Amount
Limit Full $1,856
Limit Short $238
Limit HU ($254)

[Post to Twitter] Tweet This Post 

You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

2 Comments to April wrap-up

  1. Pud's Poker says:

    May 9th, 2008 at 4:24 am

    I’m not sure if a someone could go on a 100k hand downswing which was totally down to variance but I have heard of 50-100k break even spells which must be very hard to take.

    As for short-term variance, I played in a short handed ting game the other day and 1st hand I was dealt AA and ended up AIPF against KK and it held for once! Two hands later everyone left the table so in 3 hands I’d made 100BB!

  2. Nsidestrate says:

    May 9th, 2008 at 11:11 am

    I’m actually not one who usually believes in 100k downswings either. I think the only way for it to happen would be if you were a very slight winner with a relatively high SD. Then it is fairly easy. For instance if you win 1 bb/100 and have a SD of only 14 bb/100, a downswing over 65,000 hands would be within 2 standard deviations. As your expected earn rate increases, the likelihood of this kind of downswing reduces significantly. I also suspect that the guy whose average win rate is 1 bb/100 actually plays much worse than that sometimes.

    Having said that, I know some players who I know to be very good long term winners who have had some soul-crushing downswings.

Leave a comment

a href=

Bad Behavior has blocked 304 access attempts in the last 7 days.

Tweet This Post links powered by Tweet This v1.3.9, a WordPress plugin for Twitter.