I now have more data on the 70/210 FPP sats
I’ve now seen at least 100 2 outers and 3 outers in these things. You see silly all-ins in the early stages when people seem to think gambling it up is the most fun way to proceed and then you see them later once the blinds get crazy. As a result, I’ve seen more bad beats in a week than I saw in my whole life!
I’ve taken to playing these sats four at a time. I fire up a 210 and then three 70s to run at the same time. The one table 70s actually take a bit longer. I pretty consistently win one of the four sats. That means that I earn 11 T$ per 420 FPPs. We’ll call that 25 T$ per 1,000, which would translate to an earn of $1,750 or about a 50% premium over concierge.
I’m pretty sure that I actually do better in the 210s than the 70s. The bubble play in the 210s is shockingly bad. The last one I played was a classic WTF? example. There was a player who was certain to be all-in in exactly one more hand. He had only enough chips to pay the antes. The hand before he is set to go all-in for less than the big blind, a player calls all-in with A7s. My brain almost exploded. Somehow, his insanity was rewarded when he caught an Ace to crack 88. The next hand, the shorty is all-in and four people have enough sense to call the big blind to minimize his chances of surviving. The flop comes down A65hh and one of the four people who called him shoves! This actually lowered my IQ by 20 points as I attempted to make sense of it. If any of us win the hand, the game is over and we all win. What could be possibly be thinking to make that bet? In classic donk fashion, he had A2o. The all-in player had J5. If he had caught two pair, I think it would legally justified to hunt the guy down ad shoot him. It would be merciful, right? He can’t possibly survive in the wild.
I also played in the Blogger PLO8 tourney tonight. I busted 110/396 where 72 pay. I had a huge stack, when a guy raised the CO with QQxx unsuited. I re-raised pot with KKxx double suited. He shoved (for like 5% more) and of course flopped his Queen. I then lost a big pot when all the money went in on the flop. I had top set on a JT7r board and got called by AK32. The turn was a 6 (I just knew he would split the pot with me) and the river was a Q. I guess the split would have been better. I busted with KQJTss on a JT7 board against a set of 7s. He actually played fine, as I didn’t have many chips left on the flop.
I should have just sat out when I was among the chip leaders so that I could lock up my seat in the main event, but I’m too stupid to do that.
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